Auburn (-10) Getting 84% of Betting Handle vs Mississippi State in Week 5
- The 7th-ranked Auburn Tigers host the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium
- Auburn ranks first in both strength of record and adjusted win/loss record
- With over 80% of money being bet on the Tigers, it may be a smart play to fade Auburn and take the points
The Auburn Tigers (4-0) are getting all the love ahead of their match up with Mississippi State (3-1) on Saturday night (Sep. 28, 7:00 PM ET).
Their early-season wins on the big stage appear to be influencing bettors in a big way, and the spread in the Mississippi State vs Auburn odds is now Tigers -10.
Mississippi State vs Auburn Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | +10 (-117) | +317 | O 46.5 (-107) |
| #7 Auburn | -10 (-103) | -400 | U 46.5 (-113) |
*Odds taken 9/27.
Our sources tell us the Tigers are getting 84% of the handle and 80% of the tickets. Auburn is undefeated and has faced a tough schedule out of the gate, but with a formidable SEC opponent coming to town Saturday night, fading the public money could be the smart play.
Kylin Hill & Osirus Mitchell Give MSST Dynamic Duo
RB Kylin Hill has been an absolute dynamo for the Bulldogs this season. He’s third in all of college football with 551 yards on the ground to go along with five touchdowns. He’s the biggest reason Mississippi State ranks 35th in offensive efficiency despite having average quarterback play.
Kylin Hill took flight from the 4-yard line for the TD 🤯
(via @SECNetwork)pic.twitter.com/0bZULtmy1h
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 21, 2019
WR Osirus Mitchell is another player to watch for the Bulldogs. He has already racked up 17 receptions and 244 yards to go along with three scores. Those 17 receptions are 10 more than any of his teammates. But the Auburn defense can’t really zero in on him; they’ll need to commit too many bodies to the box to stop Hill.
Watch for one or both of these star players to have big games. My money is on the 6’5, 210-pound receiver against what could end up being an overmatched Auburn secondary.
Auburn Continues to Win Tight Games
Unlike most teams in the SEC ,the Tigers have actually spent the early part of the season playing quality opponents. They beat Oregon 27-21 in a tight non-conference showdown in the opening week. Last Saturday, they won by eight at Texas A&M (28-20).
Auburn ranks first in strength of record and first in adjusted win/loss record. All of this is a fancy way of saying the Tigers are to be taken seriously.
We have the best fans in college football!!
The atmosphere in Jordan-Hare on Saturday will be electric!#WarEagle | #RidefortheBrand pic.twitter.com/JJuru2sy8j
— Coach Gus Malzahn (@CoachGusMalzahn) September 27, 2019
That said, the wins haven’t really been in dominant fashion. Sure they beat up on Tulane and Kent St., but the two game against quality opponents were both one-possession games. They trailed Oregon 21-6 before mounting an improbable comeback late in the third quarter.
Mississippi State is much closer to Oregon and Texas A&M than the two bottom feeders, so I’d expect this game to be close. The fact that both teams rank in the top 25 in overall efficiency suggests it could again be a one-score affair.
Take Advantage of the Line Movement Toward Auburn
The lopsided handle has already resulted in the spread growing, and it may get bigger before kickoff if the trend continues.
I’m with Mississippi State +10 but you’re more than welcome to wait until the early games kickoff tomorrow to see if you can steal another half point.
Pick: Mississippi State +10 (-117)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
