Over 90% of Betting Handle Is on Texas on the Road at TCU; Longhorns Now Favored After Opening as Underdogs

• After a close call at Kansas in Week 8, Texas opened as small road underdogs at TCU in Week 9
• Almost all of the early money has been on the Longhorns, though, who are now favored
• The Longhorns are just 2-3 ATS and SU in their last five trips to Fort Worth

The Texas Longhorns will visit the TCU Horned Frogs this Saturday (Oct. 26, 3:30 PM ET) in a matchup of two teams that have been in the Top 25 this season. Despite two losses and a close call at Kansas last weekend, #15 Texas is still there, while the 3-3 Horned Frogs have fallen out.

As often happens with ranked teams that have large national profiles, the point spread has moved in Texas’ favor. Oddsmakers reported that 92.8% of the handle has been on Texas as well as 83.6% of all bets.

With bettors piling in on the Longhorns, are they still worth a bet?

Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs Odds & Betting Handle

Odds taken October 24th.

Longhorns Seeing 90% Of The Betting Handle

The Longhorns are one of the heaviest bet sides of the week. Not only are they getting 92.8% of the handle, but 83.6% of all bets have also been on Texas.

It’s not shocking that the public is fading the Horned Frogs. They were ranked No. 25 entering their third game but losses in three of their last four have sent them falling down the ladder.

TCU Has Lost Trust Of Bettors

There was a lot of optimism for the Horned Frogs after they started 2-0. However, they lost at home to SMU in their third game, and have also lost their last two contests as well. Their only wins on the year are against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Purdue and Kansas.

The last two games have been extremely disappointing for the Horned Frogs. They were crushed 49-24 by Iowa State on October 5th, coming nowhere close to covering as a 3.5-point dog. Then they had a bye week and returned as a 4.5-point favorite at Kansas State. They lost 24-17 in Manhattan.

Bettors are losing trust in this team as they can’t seem to cover against even the weak Big 12 foes. Now they’re going up against a Texas team whose only losses are to Oklahoma and LSU, who were both ranked No. 6 at the time of their meeting. The expectation here is that Texas rolls.

Why Is Texas Favored By So Little?

If you’re wondering why a ranked Texas team opened as an underdog on the road at TCU, keep in mind that this is only Texas’ second true road game of the season. Their first was at West Virginia. They won the game (42-31) but were outgained (463-427 yards) by a suspect Mountaineers team and needed a +3 turnover differential to distance West Virginia.

The Longhorns don’t play particularly well in Fort Worth, historically, as they are 2-3 both SU and ATS in their last five games at TCU.

What’s The Best Bet?

There’s no question that the Longhorns secondary has some issues but the Horned Frogs don’t excel passing the ball. They pound away on the ground, collecting 200+ rushing yards against every opponent except for Iowa State. Considering Kansas had 259 rushing yards last week, TCU should feel like they’ll have success there too.

As for the TCU defense, they’re a bit overrated in my eyes as the team is 0-2 against teams that throw for 200 yards or more; Sam Ehlinger has thrown for at least 210 in every game.

A lot of people are worried about the Longhorns after last week’s near-loss to Kansas (50-48) but they were hungover after the Oklahoma game. It wiped them out of the College Football Playoff picture and the Longhorns were fatigued and reeling.

They’ll refocus this week, win and cover against a TCU team that’s been very shaky this season.