College Football Conference Championship Week Upset Picks
- Syracuse came through for us last week, beating Boston College straight-up.
- Taking the underdog in the SEC Championship game is… an aggressive bet
- Thankfully, we get great odds on Georgia to pull the upset of the year over Alabama.
Our College Football Upset Picker is coming to an end, with this being the last week of the college football season. Let’s end it with a bang!
College Football Upset Picks Week 13 Results
| Our Pick | Result |
|---|---|
| LSU (+135) | L |
| Pitt (+165) | L |
| Syracuse (+220) | W |
Syracuse coming through for us leaves us up 0.2 units for the week, and 0.6 units for the season. I don’t feel bad about LSU losing, as it took SEVEN OVERTIMES for Texas A&M to seal that one.
College Football Conference Championship Week Upset Picks
SEC Championship: Georgia vs Alabama
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia (#4) | +14.0 (-115) | +375 |
| Alabama (#1) | -14.0 (-105) | -550 |
I am not at all eager to bet against the Alabama Crimson Tide. However, this line is badly skewed in Alabama’s direction, and with only a few games on the odds sheet we have to take value where we find it.
Most statistical systems give Alabama an edge in this game, but a far narrower one than you’ll see in the sportsbooks. S&P+ projects this to be a 3-point game on a neutral field. Whether or not Mercedes Benz Stadium is a “neutral site” is up to you.
TUA WITH THE WALK OFF! BAMA WINS#NationalChampionship pic.twitter.com/ffKRxvBVt5
— Sports Landing (@SportsLanding) January 9, 2018
I’d also like to point out that the further and further up the rankings you get the smaller differences in skill and efficiency tend to get. Alabama won this game last year on the last play of the game. Clemson won the 2017 title on the last play of the game. The year before that, Alabama recovered an onside kick to seal the national title, 45-40.
Projecting this game to be a two-touchdown blowout just seems weird, and I’ll gladly take the huge odds we’re getting for Georgia.
Mountain West Championship: Fresno State vs Boise State
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Fresno State (#25) | +3.0 (-120) | +120 |
| Boise State (#22) | -3.0 (EVEN) | -140 |
This is obviously a very narrow line, but nevertheless I think it’s upside-down. Fresno State is a top-15 (maybe even top-10) team this year, and their road loss against Boise earlier this year seems to be influencing the line in this rematch.
Since that loss, Fresno State has beaten San Diego State and San Jose State, each handily. The defense has proved to be among the best in the country. Don’t let one game skew your whole betting line.
Alex studied political science in university but spent most of that time watching college football. He covered sports betting for SBD from 2017-2019. Avid tennis player, golf nut, and motorsports nerd.
