College Football Upset Predictions for Week 11 (Saturday, Nov. 11)

• Which teams are on upset alert in college football Week 11?
• We’ve made two expert college football expert predictions for Saturday
• Check out our college football upset picks for Saturday’s Week 11 slate

It’s that time of year in college football when upsets are in full swing. Underdog teams with seemingly nothing to play for can ruin a team’s season and CFP aspirations with a single victory.

Who is on upset alert in college football Week 11? We’ve made a couple of Week 11 college football upset predictions for Saturday to help you potentially secure a nice payday. These upset picks are based on power rankings and take advantage of the most mispriced betting moneylines.

Without further ado, let’s get into our Week 11 college football upset predictions and analysis.

Iowa State vs BYU Odds

Cougars Are Undefeated at Home

One of our top Week 11 college football upset picks is the BYU Cougars in their matchup with the Iowa State Cyclones. There’s a chance Kedon Slovis could return at quarterback for the Cougars on Saturday, which gives them some nice offensive upside.

Both these programs own identical 5-4 records and can garner bowl eligibility with a victory. The Cougars are undefeated at home this season, averaging 26 points per game on offense and allowing 13 points per game on defense. The Cyclones are 2-2 on the road and have a -0.3 scoring margin away from Jack Trice Stadium.

LaVell Edwards Stadium is like no other 🤙 pic.twitter.com/kkKuVMbLRt

— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) November 11, 2023

We simply don’t trust this struggling ISU offense to get the job on the road. The Cyclones are only averaging 337 yards per game, and quarterback Rocco Becht has a 13-7 touchdown-interception ratio. His completion percentage also dips to below 60% in road games.

This is a full unit play if Slovis is confirmed to be the starter, but we’d reduce the unit size if he’s ruled out. Current starter Jake Retzlaff doesn’t give the Cougars the same offensive upside, although we’d still sprinkle this play as this betting line is mispriced due to overreaction to BYU piling up recent losses against tough opponents.

• Upset Pick: BYU ML (+245)

Florida vs LSU Odds

Gators Will Run on Tigers’ Porous Defense

Another Week 11 college football upset prediction we’re making is the Florida Gators over the LSU Tigers in a pivotal SC clash. There’s huge sharp money on the Gators spread (+14.5) as it’s getting 69% of handle with only 22% of bets. We also think the moneyline is worth a smaller play.

Much like our first CFB upset prediction, this game is also impacted by a quarterback injury. Jayden Daniels is the heart and soul of this Tigers team and he’s listed as questionable for Saturday due to a concussion. Even if he can play, we don’t believe he’ll be at 100 percent following that grueling game vs Alabama.

My goodness, this Dallas Turner hit on Jayden Daniels was violent. pic.twitter.com/KN6ygcxgI7

— Connor O'Gara (@cjogara) November 5, 2023

This is a clear letdown spot for the Tigers after their rivalry game, and the Gators will be eager to take advantage after losing a heartbreaker in overtime to Arkansas. There’s one key matchup in this game that has us leaning towards the underdog.

LSU is 103rd in opponent yards per rush attempt, and the Gators come into Baton Rouge with two talented rushing backs in Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, who have both rushed for 500-plus yards. Given how Ole Miss and Alabama had both notable success running against LSU, we expect the Gators to rely heavily on their ground game to force this one down to the wire.

• Upset Pick: Florida ML (+490)

Other teams worth sprinkling on:

• Syracuse (+124) vs Pittsburgh
• Temple (+245) vs South Florida

DRAFTKINGS
SPORTSBOOK

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly + a No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

+ A NO SWEAT NBA SGP

GET PROMO