Duke’s Mayo Bowl Odds and Picks – Prediction for NC State vs Maryland

• 23rd ranked NC State is a 1-point favorite in the NC State vs Maryland odds ahead of Friday’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl
• 13 Maryland players are opting out of this contest, including seven starters
• Check out the NC State vs Maryland odds below, plus analysis and a bet to target

Like most Power Five programs, #23 NC State (8-4) had bigger aspirations than an appearance in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl this season. The Wolfpack roared out to a 4-0 start, and were a legitimate ACC title contender until their star QB went down.

After the injury to Devin Leary, NC State went on to lose three of its final six games, but did end the season strong by upsetting their in-state rival UNC.

Online sportsbooks are leaning towards another Wolfpack victory in Friday’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl versus Maryland (7-5), as NC State is now the chalk in the college football odds.

NC State vs Maryland Odds

Odds as of December 28 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Duke’s Mayo Bowl matchup.

The Wolfpack are currently favored by 1-point, after opening as 1.5-point underdogs. Early money drove NC State from ‘dog to favorite status, and big-money bettors are still backing them. 58% of the spread money is currently on the Wolfpack, with those wagers coming from only 46% of the tickets.

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Total wise, the game opened at 46 and has been bet up slightly to 46.5. Kickoff for this contest is set for Noon ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, with ESPN providing the coverage.

Maryland Terrapins Betting Analysis

A major reason for why the spread has shifted in NC State’s favor is due to the overwhelming amount of Maryland players that won’t suit up. 13 Terrapins have either opted out of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl or have entered the transfer portal. That list includes seven starters, including three of their top-four receivers.

The trio (Dontay Demus Jr., Jacob Copeland and Rakim Jarrett) are all NFL talent, and to make matters worse, starting tight end CJ Dippre is leaving for Alabama. That puts starting QB Taulia Tagovailoa in a bind, as his weapons are now extremely limited. Jeshuan Jones, who led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns will play, but after him the cupboard is bare.

https://twitter.com/RakimJarrett/status/1602747010091810818

The Terrapins offense was far from a juggernaut to begin with averaging only 29 points per game. Now in its depleted form, points should be tough to come by versus a stout Wolfpack D. NC State ranked 19th in scoring defense this season, yielding only 19 points per contest. They neutralized opponent rushing attacks to the tune of 3.6 yards per carry, and yielded only 6.8 yards per throw and a 59% completion percentage.

The Wolfpack do have a handful of defensive players that are either injured or opting out, but rush end Savion Jackson (injury) was the lone true impact player.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Analysis

That’s not to say NC State won’t be missing its fair share of important pieces. Leary first and foremost remains out and has actually entered the transfer portal. Also out is star receiver Devin Carter. The junior wideout is opting out for the NFL Draft, after ending the season with a clutch six-catch, 130-yard, one-TD performance in the upset win over the Tar Heels.

The Wolfpack will also be down a starting offensive lineman as well, while offensive coordinator Tim Beck has bolted for Coastal Carolina. Speaking of the o-line, it remains to be seen who they’ll be protecting.

The Pack is in the Queen City!#1Pack1Goal pic.twitter.com/7b5cYFjVeO

— NC State Football (@PackFootball) December 27, 2022

Head coach Dave Doeren refuses to announce a starter. When Leary went down and backup QB Jack Chambers fizzled out, MJ Morris took over. The freshman threw 6 TD passes in a pair of home victories, but then suffered an injury in his third start. He missed the final two games of the season, which paved the way for Ben Finley to get reps.

Finley played well against North Carolina throwing for 271 yards and two scores, but that wasn’t enough to earn the permanent role. Both QB’s are allegedly healthy and practicing, but neither will be confirmed as the starter prior to kickoff.

NC State averaged just 22 points per game this season, ranking outside the top-100 in points and yards per play. The Terrapins defense, meanwhile, surrendered only 24 points per outing, and the 15th-lowest passing yards per completion (6.3).

NC State vs Maryland Prediction

Bettors certainly believe the Maryland opt outs are more significant than the Wolfpack’s, and it’s impressive that NC State was able to win eight games (one more than the Terps) while playing four different QB’s.

The trends certainly support the Wolfpack, and that’s the direction I’m leaning. NC State is 10-3 ATS in Bowl Games since 2002, including 5-2 against the spread under Doeren.

NC State Recent Bowl Game History

Maryland, on the other hand, has struggled badly to show up in big games. They’re 7-21 ATS versus ranked opponents since 2016, the worst mark of any Power Five program. That includes a 3-11 against the spread record versus top-25 teams over the last three years.

Pick: NC State -1 (-110)