Early Point Spread Sees #10 Notre Dame Laying 11 at Home Against Unbeaten #18 Virginia

• No. 18 Virginia (4-0) travels to No. 10 Notre Dame (2-1) in Week 5 and opened as 11-point underdogs
• The Fighting Irish are coming off a hard-fought 23-17 loss to the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
• Is the point spread likely to move later in the week?

Notre Dame put up one hell of a fight against the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 4. Despite losing 23-17 between the hedges, they are getting some love from the oddsmakers this week, opening as 11-point home chalk against the No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers in Week 5 (Saturday, Sep. 28th, 3:30 PM ET).

Virginia vs Notre Dame Odds

*Odds taken 9/23.

Even with the Virginia vs Notre Dame odds so heavily skewed toward the Irish, the stats say bet Notre Dame, and bet them before the line moves. Here’s why.

Notre Dame Defense An Elite Unit

It’s a group effort on defense for Notre Dame, but they are undoubtedly the most elite unit in this football game. ESPN ranks them as the 8th-most efficient defense in the nation and for good reason. They’ve racked up 5 fumbles and 3 interceptions already and have only allowed 54 points on the year.

That number is particularly impressive when you consider last week’s opponent, Georgia, is one of the strongest offensive units in college football. The 23-17 final in that game may not have been one Notre Dame fans loved, but it went a long way to earning Brian Kelly and company some credit.

🎙☘️ @NDFootball head coach @CoachBrianKelly is stepping up to the podium before the No. 10 Irish take on No. 18 Virginia on Saturday. #GoIrish #BeatCavaliers https://t.co/gsn8z4fnzP

— The Fighting Irish (@FightingIrish) September 23, 2019

Alohi Gilman leads the team with 21 tackles from the safety position, but it’s linebackers Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Asmar Bilal who could control the game in the middle of the field. Virginia’s offense is the lowest-ranked unit in the game by ESPN, credited with the 52nd-best offense and that could pose big problems. If they struggle to sustain long drives on the road, the defense will get worn down.

Will Ian Book Continue Strong Play?

Ian Book has looked great this season. Last game, he put up 275 passing yards against the Bulldogs defense, which goes to show he isn’t just cherry picking stats against weak opponents. He has 828 yards passing on the year to go with 145 more yards on the ground. He’s only three yards off the team lead in rushing yards, which is impressive considering he also owns a 61.7 completion percentage.

Georgia defensive back J.R. Reed on Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book: “[He] definitely reminds me of Johnny Manziel. He likes to extend the plays. He likes to do a lot with his legs.” pic.twitter.com/g7HSI6IHAX

— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 21, 2019

He can beat you with his arm and his legs. Book has 10 total touchdowns and only two interceptions, so he’s not sacrificing ball security. Virginia linebacker Charles Snowden is coming off being named the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week, but he’ll notice in a hurry that Book is more of a handful than anything Old Dominion had to offer.

Final Verdict

Virginia is undefeated but they have wins over Old Dominion, a down Florida State team, as well as William & Mary and Pittsburgh. Their 27-17 win over ODU last time out was truly concerning. They trailed the Monarchs, who sit 120th in the F/+ Combined Ratings, 17-7 at the half.

This test on the road at Notre Dame is their first true test and it’s not one I believe will go very well. I’d confidently bet Notre Dame to cover the number but I’d do it sooner rather than later.

👀 #GoIrish ☘️ pic.twitter.com/rjXofYgZzX

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 23, 2019

Notre Dame is a highly public team with a huge following. Point spreads tend to move in their favor the longer lines are open, and I expect this to follow that trend.

PICK: Notre Dame -11 (-107)