Iowa vs Michigan Picks & Odds – Iowa Has Won Five of Last Six Meetings

• The Iowa Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings between the teams
• Iowa ranks second-last in the nation in tackles for a loss and rank 108th in terms of sacks per game (1.2)
• The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 52-0 win over Rutgers last weekend

The Iowa Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings with Michigan and have a good opportunity to extend that streak this weekend.

The Wolverines have struggled so far this season. However, Michigan is back in the Top 25 after a big win over Rutgers and is favored in this contest.

Iowa vs Michigan odds list the Wolverines as a 3.5 point favorite, should you lay the points with Jim Harbaugh’s team? Or is it the best bet to roll with the Hawkeyes for an upset?

#14 Iowa vs #19 Michigan Odds

*Odds taken 10/03/19 

What’s With the Wolverines?

This was supposed to be the year that Michigan finally challenged for a Big Ten title and beat all of its rivals. Instead, they head into Week 6 mostly limping. They edged Middle Tennessee State in the opener, barely beat Army, got crushed by Wisconsin and then blew out Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the nation.

In truth, a win this week brings Michigan to 4-1 with just the one loss to a team in the top ten, so everything will be fine.

Nobody will be investing in their National Championship odds, but 4-1 is a good record. However, this team has looked broken. Even in last week’s 52-0 win over Rutgers, Shea Patterson had just 276 passing yards, one touchdown and he also threw a pick.

The Wolverines have had a really tough time on third downs (62nd in the country) and are 116th in giveaways per game (2.5). If they don’t clean up the mistakes, Iowa will take advantage.

Where is Iowa’s Pass Rush?

What’s bizarre about this Iowa team is that they haven’t done much work behind the line of scrimmage. We’re talking about a school that’s known for dominating the defensive line and while they’ve only allowed 34 points so far (in four games), they are dead-last in the country in tackles for a loss.

Iowa is averaging just 1.2 sacks per game, which is 108th in the country. One of the issues with Shea Patterson is that Wisconsin sacked him twice and pressured him all day.

Army got to him four times and Middle Tennessee State did twice as well, if Iowa can’t get to him, the Wolverines will have a good chance to win.

How Good is Iowa?

Sure, they’re ranked No. 14 in the country but who have they really beaten? They’re undefeated so far but the wins have come against Miami of Ohio, Rutgers and Middle Tennessee State, and they had a one-point win over rival Iowa State. However, Iowa State is no longer even ranked, so that win doesn’t look as credible.

The Hawkeyes are a smart, disciplined team who doesn’t beat themselves. They are second in the nation in fewest penalties and have committed the fewest turnovers in the country. Quarterback Nate Stanley has been efficient (64% completions) and he’ll be the best quarterback the Wolverines have seen to date.

On top of that, the ground game is churning out over 200 rushing yards per game. It makes you wonder if they can follow the same game plan that Wisconsin did and pound these guys into the ground.

What’s the Best Bet?

While it’s true that Iowa doesn’t get to the quarterback very often, they also don’t give up much on the ground. My concern here for Michigan is can they win this game if their running game isn’t working? This is the week where they probably do just enough in that regard to get the job done.

A lot of value has been sucked out of this line as Iowa was at +5 earlier in the week and is now down to +3.5.

This is really Jim Harbaugh’s last stand as a coach as he’s probably a goner if he can’t get this win. I think Michigan gets it together and does just enough to win this game. Take them on the moneyline.