LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Picks – CFB Week 3

• LSU and Mississippi State begin their SEC schedules on Saturday, Sep. 16, with a matchup in Starkville, MS
• Ranked #14 in the AP Poll, the LSU Tigers are big road favorites despite losing their only other game against an FBS team this season by 21 points
• See the LSU vs Mississippi State odds, predictions, and picks for Saturday’s SEC-opener

The SEC schedule kicks off this Saturday, Sep. 16, with a noon ET matchup between the #14 LSU Tigers (1-1) and unranked Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0).

Now under the leadership of Zach Arnett after the tragic passing of head coach Mike Leach last December, the Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start with wins over FCS side Southeast Louisiana Lions (48-7 home) and the Pac-12’s Arizona Wildcats (31-24 home).

Playing in the friendly confines of Davis Wade Stadium for the third straight week, Mississippi State finds itself a big underdog to the visiting Tigers.

LSU vs Mississippi State Odds

LSU is currently a nine point road favorite and -360 on the moneyline. The Bulldogs come back at +285 to win outright, while the total is sitting at 54.5.

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Odds as of Sep. 13 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get a Caesars promo code  to bet on LSU vs MSST this Saturday and check out Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky if you are a resident of KY.

Mississippi State Getting No Respect from Oddsmakers

LSU won last year’s matchup by 15 points (31-16), easily covering as three-point home underdogs. But the Bulldogs led the game by as many as 13 and held a six-point lead entering the fourth quarter in Baton Rouge. It was a hard-fought contest with a somewhat misleading final score.

LSU is on the high end in terms of returning production from last year (71%, which ranks 32nd out of 133 FBS teams), while Mississippi State is 91st (57%). But the Bulldogs do return 71% of offensive production, including starting QB Will Rogers, leading rusher Jo’Quavious Marks, and 500-yard receiver Lideatrick Griffin.

LSU’s defense, which only returns 60% of its production from last season, was exposed in Week 1 by Florida State. Jordan Travis and the Noles racked up nearly 500 total yards of offense in a 45-24 rout. This despite FSU committing seven penalties compared to just two for LSU.

The 2022 Tiger defense often played to a similar script: dominate lesser teams while getting gutted by top-tier offenses (50 points against vs Georgia, 40 vs Tennessee, 31 vs Alabama). It would be overstatement to label Mississippi State a top-tier offense, but they have the tools to move the ball and already seem to have found a modicum of footing in Arnett’s new scheme.

LSU’s only other game this season came against Grambling State last weekend, a 72-10 laugher against an overmatched FCS team. The Tigers were among the top-ten favorites in the national championship odds heading into the season (+1175) but have faded significantly to +3900 after two games. Their odds to win the SEC also fell from +450 to +525. Mississippi State is currently a +13625 longshot, roughly the same as Week 1.

LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction

Seeing LSU -9 in the Week 3 college football odds was a shocker. This line is too high and too dismissive of Mississippi State. LSU brings a potent offense and will put up its share of yards and points on a retooled Mississippi State defense, but expecting the Tigers to win by two scores on the road with their own rebuilding defense is a bridge too far.

Will Rogers is a capable quarterback and, under Arnett, the Bulldogs are not asking him to carry the weight of the offensive world. Jo’Quavious Marks already has 250 rushing yards through two games, nearly half of his total from the entire 2022 season (582) when he still averaged 5.2 YPC. Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright gives Arnett a fleet-footed option under center and already has 92 rushing yards on just six carries through the first two games. There is enough weaponry here to keep within striking distance in what should be an offensive shootout.

LSU vs Mississippi State Picks:

• MSST +9 (-110)
• Over 54.5 (-110)