Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Spreads and Picks
- No. 6 Michigan is a 4.5-point road favorite at No. 8 Michigan State at noon ET Saturday on FOX
- The last time the teams met when both were in the Top 10 was in 1964; Michigan State in 9-4 straight up, 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings
- See the latest odds and a preview of the game within the story below
No. 8 Michigan State (7-0, 4-0) is a 4.5-point underdog when it plays host to No. 6 Michigan (7-0, 4-0) at noon ET Saturday on FOX. The two are tied with Ohio State (6-1, 4-0) atop the Big Ten East, and only one could be expected to make the CFP Final Four.
Michigan State has had the upper hand in the yearly grudge match recently, winning nine of the last 13 and covering 11 of the 13. The schools are 61 miles apart in south-central Michigan.
Michigan vs Michigan State Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | -200 | -4.5 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-109) |
| Michigan State Spartans | +160 | +4.5 (-113) | Under 50.5 (-112) |
*Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Oct. 27th
Michigan and Michigan State will meet while ranked in the top ten of the AP poll for first time since 1964, when the No. 7 Wolverines beat the No. 9 Spartans 17-10. The Wolverines scored 14 points in the final seven minutes, the go-ahead score coming on a halfback option pass.
The last time the teams met when both were undefeated was in 2010, when they were 5-0 and ranked in the top 20. No. 17 Michigan State scored consecutive points 24 points and intercepted Denard Robinson three times in a 34-17 victory over the No. 18 Wolverines in the Big House.
Rushing to Victory
Michigan and Michigan State make their offensive intentions known. Each is averaging more than 200 yards rushing per game behind two of the top running backs in the FBS, the Spartans’ Heisman Trophy candidate Kenneth Walker III and the Wolverines’ Blake Corum.
Walker III, a 5’10, 210-pound junior, has most the made of his transfer from Wake Forest. He has 997 yards rushing and leads the FBS with an average of 142.4 yards per game. He will be second to 1,000 yards only because Syracuse’s Sean Tucker (1,060) has played one more game. Walker set a school record with a 94-yard touchdown run against Rutgers on Oct. 9
Corum, a 5’8, 200-pound sophomore, is fourth in the Big Ten with 729 yards and a 104.1 average per game. Corum has four 100-yard games and two three-touchdown games, and he had 119 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries in a 33-7 home victory against Northwestern last week. Corum has been integrated into the passing game recently, with nine catches for 60 yards in the last two games.
6-1, 220-pound Hassan Haskins adds another dimension to the Wolverines’ rushing attack. He has 602 yards on the ground, and both he and Corum have 10 touchdowns. Walker III also has 10, one receiving.
For the Defense
Michigan has a distinct statistical edge here – the Wolverines have held their opponents to 299 yards total offense, ranking 11th in the FBS, and 116.6 yards per game. They have given up 12 touchdowns, three rushing. Michigan State has given up 406.4 yards a game but only 121 and five touchdowns rushing.
Michigan is second in the FBS in scoring defense, giving up 14.3 points a game. Michigan State is tied for 19th at 18.7.
With the emphasis on the running game, neither team is in the FBS top 50 in completion percentage. Spartans’ starter Payton Thorne has thrown for 1,701 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. Michigan’s Cade McNamara has thrown 1,115 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.
By the Numbers
Michigan has covered the last two in East Lansing, both times as an underdog. The Wolverines limited the home team to 94 yards total offense in a 21-7 victory as a 7.5-point underdog in 2018 and won 32-23 as a 24.5-point underdog in 2016. The Spartans’ seven points in 2018 was their lowest in the series 2002.
Michigan State’s Mel Tucker is the unanimous choice as Big Ten coach of the first half of the season by writers from The Associated Press who cover the conference.
More Big Ten midseason picks from @mitchstacy >> https://t.co/EJskMfDVd7 pic.twitter.com/lHiMQCKuh2
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) October 19, 2021
The scoring margin in victories against common opponents Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers is remarkably similar. Both beat Nebraska by three points. Michigan State beat Northwestern by 17 and Rutgers by 18. Michigan beat Northwestern by 26 and Rutgers by 7. This is not the time to buck the series trend.
- The pick: Michigan State +4.5 (105)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
