Michigan vs Iowa Odds, Predictions & Props for Big Ten Championship Game

• Michigan is a massive favorite over Iowa in the 2023 Big Ten Championship
• The total of 35.0 is nine points lower than any other conference championship
• See the Michigan vs Iowa odds, spread, and picks for the 2023 Big Ten title game

This Saturday, the #2 Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 6-5-1 ATS) square off with the #17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2, 6-5-1 ATS) in the 2023 Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.

Of the ten conference championships on this week’s schedule, none has a larger spread than Michigan vs Iowa, nor a lower total. The Wolverines are currently 21.5-point favorites while the total is at a miniscule 35.0. Every other total in this week’s college football odds is 44.0 or higher.

Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes Odds

The Michigan vs Iowa odds opened at Michigan -22.5 last Sunday while the over/under was 35.5. Both have decreased slightly in the interim. The odds roughly project a final score of 28-7 Michigan.

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Despite sitting second in the CFP rankings behind #1 Georgia, Michigan remains the favorite in the national championship odds at +182. Iowa is on the board at +87500, but even a win on Saturday wouldn’t be enough to get the two-loss Hawkeyes into the four-team playoff.

Michigan Survives Against Ohio State

For the first time all season, the Wolverines were out-gained by an opponent last Saturday in “The Game” against arch-rival Ohio State. The Buckeyes finished with 378 total yards (271 passing) to just 338 for Michigan in a 30-24 Wolverine victory. If not for two costly turnovers, Ohio State likely hands UM its first loss (and takes its spot in the Big Ten title game).

Michigan has maintained its perfect record mostly on the strength of its defense this season. The Wolverines rank second in the nation in yards allowed (246.8 per game) and first in scoring (10.3 PPG). They kept their first eight opponents to ten points or fewer before allowing 15 to Penn State and 24 to both Maryland and Ohio State.

JJ McCarthy has made small strides as a junior, upping his completion percentage from 64.6 to 74.3% and his QBR from 155.0 to 176.8. He was among the Heisman odds favorites until late in the year when he had a string of quiet performances. Senior back Blake Corum has been considerably less productive than last season, averaging just 81.3 rushing yards per game compared to 121.9 as a junior.

Michigan’s last three games of the season (PSU, Maryland, Ohio State) were its only three against Power 5 teams that finished the season over .500.

Iowa Plays Historically Low-Scoring Games

If Michigan pairs an elite defense with a less-impressive offense, Iowa takes that paradigm and says “hold my beer”. The Hawkeye defense finished the season fourth in scoring (12.2 PPG) and seventh in yardage (279.9) while its offense was 124th in scoring (18.0 PPG) and last – literally dead-last in all of the FBS – in yards per game (247.3).

It wasn’t even close. The next-worst offense (Kent State) finished with 270.3 YPG.

Their combination of excellent defense and deplorable offense led to some record-low game totals this season, and they were still 2-10 over/under (tied with UCLA and Tulane for the best under percentage in the FBS).

The lowest O/U in college football goes UNDER 🤯

Under 24.5 💰 pic.twitter.com/doyHuh9lCn

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) November 24, 2023

Injuries were part of the issue. Michigan transfer Cade McNamara was serviceable during Iowa’s season-opening three-game win streak.  But when he tore his ACL, sophomore Deacon Hill was forced into action, and he’s been atrocious. Hill is completing just 48.3% of his passes (and has -78 rushing yards on the season) with a 22.4 QBR. In nearly eight full games, he has just five TD passes and six interceptions.

Iowa at least has a stable of serviceable running backs who accounted for the bulk of the team’s 426 rush attempts (versus just 291 pass attempts). But Leshon Williams (779 yards on 155 carries) and Kaleb Johnson (415 yards on 104 carries) are going to be facing eight men in the box on a regular basis against Michigan unless Hill can keep the defense honest with his arm.

Michigan vs Iowa Prediction

The Iowa team total is currently 6.5 (-128o/+100u) on the FanDuel app, and I strongly lean to the under. Unless the game is out of hand and the Wolverine defense stops caring, it’s hard to see how the Hawkeyes get in the end zone (or manufacture three field-goal drives).  But I do like the chances of Iowa’s defense keeping the score down, at least early on.  Against the other two top-tier defenses they faced this year, Michigan only managed 14 points against both Penn State and Ohio State.

A 14-0 or 17-0 scoreline at halftime is more likely than Michigan finding the end zone three times in the first half hour.

MICH vs IOWA picks:

• First half under 18.5 points (-106)
• Deacon Hill under 105.5 passing yards (-114)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023 NCAAF betting record:

• ATS: 4-8-1 (-4.36 units)
• ML: 6-2 (+5.46 units)
• O/U: 3-1 (+1.73 units)
• Player props: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
• Total: 13-12-1 (+1.83 units)