Missouri vs Georgia Odds, Spread & Picks (Nov. 4)

• Missouri vs Georgia headlines the Week 10 college football schedule
• Missouri is just the second ranked team Georgia has faced this year, and its first top-15 opponent
• See the Missouri vs Georgia odds and expert picks for Saturday’s game at Sanford Stadium

The #2 Georgia Bulldogs (8-0, 5-0 home, 2-5-1 ATS) face their stiffest test of the season (so far) in Week 10 as they welcome the #12 Missouri Tigers (7-1, 2-0 away, 5-3 ATS) to Sanford Stadium on Saturday, Nov.  4, at 3:30 pm ET.

While the Tigers are in the midst of their best season in a decade, oddsmakers still don’t give the idea of an upset much credence. Georgia is currently a 15-point favorite and -675 on the moneyline.

Missouri vs Georgia Odds

Missouri comes back as a +490 underdog to win straight-up in the Week 10 college football odds. The game total is sitting at 54.5 with the over slightly favored (-112o/-108u).

While the spread is still massive, the line has actually moved significantly toward Mizzou, which opened as a 17.5-point underdog. As of noon on Thursday, the college football public betting splits show Mizzou getting 84% of ATS handle as 15-point underdogs.

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Odds as of Nov. 2 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Bettors who have already claimed the DK sign-up bonus can check out the upcoming ESPN Bet promo.

Georgia (+266) has slipped to second-favorite in the national championship odds behind Michigan (+237). Missouri is among the top-20 favorites, but at a distant +40000 in a top-heavy landscape.

Georgia Takes Down Florida (Again)

For the third straight year, Georgia took down rival Florida in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party by 20-plus points. A 43-20 victory last Saturday in Jacksonville ran UGA’s record to 8-0 on the year and marked just the second time this season that the Bulldogs covered a spread, winning by 23 as 14.5-point chalk.

Just like this week with Mizzou, the line for the Florida game opened at Georgia -17.5 and was then bet heavily in UF’s favor, moving a full three points by gameday. While last week was only their second ATS win, it marked the second time in three games that UGA covered the spread by more than a touchdown; their other win against the number came during a 51-13 rout of Kentucky as 14.5-point favorites on Oct. 7.

The Bulldogs don’t have the same level of first-round, game-breaking talent that they have each of the past two seasons – especially on defense – but Kirby Smart’s group is filled with veteran leadership  on offense and remains a top-ten defense in both yards (272.1 YPG, eighth) and scoring (14.8 PPG, seventh).

Mizzou Routs UK, SC to Get Back on Track

The Tigers took their first, and so far only, loss of the season three games ago against Jayden Daniels’ LSU (49-39 at home). Brady Cook’s 411 passing yards wasn’t enough as a late pick-six from the junior pivot sealed the loss in what was a riveting back-and-forth game.

Cook didn’t let that bad taste linger, leading Mizzou to a 38-21 upset over then-#24 Kentucky as 3.5-point road underdogs. In truth, it was Missouri’s defense that gets most of the credit for the win in Lexington, holding UK to 299 total yards while generating three turnovers. Cook went 19-for-29 with 175 yards, one TD, and one pick while adding another 40 yards and a major with his legs.

The ground game was the workhorse last week against South Carolina during a decisive 34-12 home win. Lead back Cody Schrader had 159 yards and two touchdowns on just 26 carries (6.1 YPC), while Cook had a season-high 64 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

With 2,259 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions on the season, plus another five rushing TDs, Cook  is among the top-25 favorites in the Heisman odds, but at a distant +20000. He is listed with a passing-yards over/under of 241.5 in the Week 10 college football player props, more than 40 yards lower than Georgia counterpart Carson Beck. The over/unders for the running backs show a similar discrepancy: UGA bell-cow Daijun Edwards is listed at 91.5 O/U rushing yards at most sportsbooks, while Schrader’s O/U ranges from 61.5 to 67.5.

Missouri’s team stats don’t wow on either side of the ball, but both their offense and defense are above average in almost every category.

Mizzou vs Georgia Prediction

I was with the sharps last week, fading Georgia when the Bulldogs opened as a 17.5-point favorite against Florida … and winding up looking silly in the process. But I’m doing it again in Week 10. To a man, the talent discrepancy that Georgia has been used to in its past two national championship-winning seasons just isn’t present this year. It took a while for oddsmakers to catch on, and that’s why the Bulldogs started the year 0-4-1 against the spread, including a 24-14 win over South Carolina as 26.5-point favorites and a 27-20 win over Auburn as 14-point favorites.

That was the same South Carolina group Mizzou just crushed by more than three touchdowns.

Missouri isn’t a great team anywhere on the field; none of the Tigers project as first-round NFL draft picks. But they do everything well and are unlikely to get run out of the building by any team during the 2023 season.

Missouri vs Georgia Pick: Missouri +15 (-110)