Montgomery Bowl Odds and Picks – Memphis vs FAU

• Memphis closes out its season as 7.5-point favorites over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl on Wednesday evening (ESPN, 7 p.m. EST)
• The Tigers had one of the country’s top offenses, but is matched up against a stout Owls defensive unit
• Read below for analysis, odds and a pick on the game

Last year, Florida Atlantic had the luxury of staying at home to cap off its 11-win season with a 57-28 victory in the Boca Raton Bowl. This, year the Owls have been a far less flashy team, and finish Willie Taggart’s first season in charge against Memphis at the Montgomery Bowl in Alabama.

What FAU lost in offense from last season, they gained in defensive improvement. Their defense will certainly be tested by the Tigers, who averaged more than 450 yards of offense per game in 2020. Memphis finished the regular season 7-3, while FAU played to a 5-3 record, with two of those three losses coming in their last two games.

Sportsbooks like the Tigers as favorites by just over a touchdown, but both teams have been particularly poor against the spread this season.

Memphis vs FAU Montgomery Bowl Odds

Odds taken from FanDuel on Dec. 21st.

By the Numbers

The first thought about this game is the matchup between Memphis’ offense and FAU’s defense. Tigers quarterback Brady White has thrown for nearly 3100 yards this season and the Owls only allowed around 175 passing yards per game.

Back2Back undefeated seasons at home & extending our home winning streak to 15 games! pic.twitter.com/U8zpOel4Bq

— Memphis Football Recruiting (@MemphisFBRec) December 13, 2020

Florida Atlantic’s defense should come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after allowing Southern Mississippi to wrack up over 500 yards of offense on them in their last game. In the two games prior, the Owls only allowed 150 passing yards combined, but one game was against the softest of cupcakes in UMass and the other was against run-heavy Georgia Southern.

In Memphis’ last three games, against a more formidable trio of Navy, Tulane and Houston, the Tigers’ defense has given up a full yard less per play than its season average. For the season, Memphis was already one of the nation’s top defensive units on third down, and have allowed their last three opponents to convert just 23-percent of the time. Unfortunately for Memphis, its offense has seen a similar difference in a negative direction during those last three matchups.

Players That Need to Step Up

For Memphis, it is defensive end Morris Joseph Jr., who has eight sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss this season.

FAU’s most important offensive player is quarterback Javion Posey, who throws the ball a bit, but is also the Owls leading rusher. Redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Marquice Robinson hasn’t been particularly strong this season for FAU, and Joseph should create some havoc in the backfield.

Javion Posey takes it 70 yards in one play to give @FAUFootball touchdowns on back to back plays on offense!

🖥 > @CBSSportsNet pic.twitter.com/bnCP21A1yl

— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) November 21, 2020

Florida Atlantic runs a two-quarterback offense, and throws most of its passes with Nick Tronti. However, the redshirt junior only has 759 yards passing this season and has completed just 54-percent of his attempts.

Statistically, Memphis has had one of the country’s worse passing defenses this season, but redshirt senior cornerback Jacobi Francis has been strong this season. If Francis can handle his side of the field, FAU becomes even more predictable of an offense to defend.

Forecasting the Outcome

Let’s be honest, Boca Raton isn’t the most happening spot in Florida, but it’s a lot more appealing than Montgomery. It’s been chilly this week and weather reports suggest that there may be some light rain when the game is set to kick off. This isn’t going to be an easy one for Taggart to keep his Florida boys up for if they don’t get on the board early.

With Memphis’ defense playing better in recent games and FAU playing below their season-long form in some critical areas on both sides of the ball, things don’t look great for the Owls here. White has’t been remarkable to close out the season for Memphis, but after three years with the Tigers, he should come out ready to play in his final game. Memphis should be able to cover the 7.5, but the under of 50.5 should look good to bettors as well.

The Pick: Under 50.5