Navy vs Air Force Odds, Lines and Best Bet
- The Navy Midshipmen visit the Air Force Falcons Saturday, October 1
- Air Force ran for over 460 yards last game, while Navy picked up their first win of the season
- See below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction
The only way that Navy vs Air Force could be more old school is if it was aired in black and white.
Expect a throwback performance to the ground-and-pound early days of football as these teams clash for an advantage on the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
It all gets underway Saturday (October 1) from Falcon Stadium at the USAF Academy in Colorado at 12pm ET, in a game that you can see live on CBS.
Navy vs Air Force Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navy Midshipmen | +14 (-110) | +465 | Ov 37.5 (-108) |
| Air Force Falcons | -14 (-110) | -715 | Un 37.5 (-111) |
Odds as of September 29th from Barstool Sporstbook.
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The latest college football odds have the visiting Midshipmen as 14-point road ‘dogs, with a total set at 37.5. Air Force is a steep -715 favorite on the moneyline.
Weather shouldn’t be a factor Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and 63-degree weather at kickoff.
Falcons Betting Outlook
Look at the box scores from the 3-1 Air Force side and you’d think you’d picked up a newspaper in the 1920s.
Through four games Air Force has thrown the ball 28 times. In two games, they have completed just a single pass, one of those in their latest win over the Nevada Wolfpack. It did connect, with Ben Brittain hitting David Cormier on an 80-yard strike.
David Cormier is gone 💨💨 pic.twitter.com/rjalhQnSTH
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 24, 2022
It’s the only pass Brittain has attempted all year, as the QB duties have stayed with Haaziq Daniels.
That hasn’t stopped Air Force from pumping out 37.8 points per game, as they possess the most devastating run game in college football.
The Falcons are putting up an absurd 412.2 yards per game rushing. To put that in perspective, no other team is even in the 300-yard rushing range, with Minnesota a distant second at 294.5 yards.
There was just no stopping Brad Roberts on this run ⚡️@AF_Football takes a 10 point lead 🙌 pic.twitter.com/cuzgYTCjbL
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 24, 2022
Against Nevada, Brad Roberts ran for 123 yards on 20 carries and three scores, while John Lee Eldridge III added 102 yards on eight totes. At least 14 different Falcons had a rush attempt in the game, as they churned out 461 yards on 75 carries, totaling five touchdowns.
MidShipmen Betting Outlook
Compared to Air Force, everybody has a lesser running attack, but Navy isn’t a slouch either. They enter Saturday 31st in the country, pumping out 196.7 yards a game.
They were right on pace in their last game, racking up 191 yards, though it took a whopping 66 carries to achieve (just a 2.9 yard average). It was their passing game, however, that allowed them to pick up their first win of the year, outlasting East Carolina 23-20 in double OT.
Vincent Tarrell Jr. answers right back with a TD to tie it up!#AmericanFB x @NavyFB pic.twitter.com/Wbvf1VOP6T
— American Football (@American_FB) September 25, 2022
Quarterback Tai Lavatai was a crisp 7-for-10 passing for 152 yards and a TD strike to Vincent Terrell Jr, who finished the day with three grabs for 114 yards.
Like Air Force, Navy prefers to grind it out on the ground. The Midshipmen have only attempted 24 passes to start the year, and sit 1-2.
Anton Hall Jr. gives @NavyFB their first lead of the game! #AmericanFB x #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/jivDy5zPiU
— American Football (@American_FB) September 25, 2022
They don’t bring the same offensive potency, though, averaging only 14.3 points per game.
Navy’s defense could play a factor, as they’ve made impactful plays overshadowed by the losing record. The Mids have racked up 10 sacks and 22 tackles for loss, while giving up a respectable 23.7 points per game.
Navy vs Air Force Pick
Air Force’s defense is stout. They are holding teams to 289.8 yards per game, good for 19th in the nation, and just 16.3 points per game.
This was a mismatch last year, with the Falcons thumping the Mids 23-3. It’s the fifth time they’ve covered the spread in the last six meetings, going 4-2 straight up.
A total 𝓽𝓮𝓪𝓶 𝓮𝓯𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓽 pic.twitter.com/noG4iozu4t
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) September 24, 2022
Despite the fact that Air Force is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games, 6-0 ATS against teams with a losing record and Navy is 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference matchups, that’s still a hefty amount of points to cover.
These are two teams that love to run the ball and possess the ball. The Falcons are second in the NCAA in time of possession at 36 minutes a game. Navy is 10th, keeping the ball at 33 minutes per.
In the seven games combined this season, only once have Air Force or Navy gone under 58 rushes.
All that running should make for fewer possessions, and more time off the clock, keeping the score down.
The Pick:
- UNDER 37.5 points (-111); 1 unit to win 0.90 units
- Week 4 NCAAF Record: 1-1: Overall: 2-2 ATS, -0.18 units
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
