Notre Dame vs Florida State Odds, Picks, and Prediction

• #9 Notre Dame travels to Tallahassee on Sunday night for a prime time matchup against the Florida State Seminoles
• Brian Kelly’s team have won 32 straight games against unranked opponents
• See the odds on the game, as well as analysis on the matchup by scrolling below

Florida State kicks off its 2021 campaign with a tall task, when the Seminoles host #9 Notre Dame at 7:30pm on ABC.

Head Coach Mike Norvell knows the first Sunday night game in Florida State history is a pivotal one, and has said as much throughout the offseason.

This game between two iconic programs will be the seventh primetime season opener for the Seminoles in the last nine years. The spread opened with Notre Dame as 11-point favorites but has since seen one-way action now sitting at 7.

The last meeting between the two schools came in 2020. It featured a convincing 42-26 Irish win that wasn’t even as close as the final score indicated. Is there reason to expect a different result this time around?

Florida State vs Notre Dame Odds

Odds as of Sept. 4th

Linebackers a Concern for Florida State

One of the most prevailing concerns for Florida State last season was its defense. It ranked 109th in efficiency, 105th in yards per play allowed, and 105th in explosiveness. It gave up loads of points to lackluster offenses such as Louisville and Pittsburgh.

It finished its season giving up 30 or more points in six consecutive games. The bad news for the Noles? It’s conceivable that it may have not improved much. The offseason saw the loss of five players to the NFL, including star Cornerback Asante Samuel Jr who was drafted the Chargers. While they made several splashes in the transfer portal, you have to wonder if they’ll be enough.

Asante Samuel Jr. picks off Jimmy G 😳

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/3jAzfMzHDM

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 23, 2021

The biggest concern for Florida State, as it was last season, is the linebacker core. Leading tackler Amari Gainer returns, but the rest of the position group has questions. It was a young group that never took a step forward. And it’s still a young group that has what it takes to take a step forward – at least  not in game one against Notre Dame.

Any team with an average Tight End was able to attack the Florida State linebackers last year. Take a look at what happened in conference to end the season. If you exclude Duke, the Noles gave up an average of 52 yards per game on 3.5 catches. A TE caught at least one Touchdown in all those games.

Those aren’t huge numbers but they are significant. They become even more significant when you realize they are playing one of the best Tight End groups in the country on Sunday.

Notre Dame Looking to Dominate In Two Skill Positions

The song remains the same for Notre Dame. The Irish boost a game-manager Quarterback in Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan, behind a dominant offensive line. They also feature one of the nation’s most dynamic backs in Kyren Williams, and for my money, the best Tight End in the country in the aforementioned Michael Meyer. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.

𝙳𝚘𝚊𝚔 𝚆𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚎𝚛 𝙰𝚠𝚊𝚛𝚍 𝚆𝚊𝚝𝚌𝚑 𝙻𝚒𝚜𝚝@Kyrenwilliams23 has been named to the watch list for the Doak Walker Award, honoring the top running back in college football.#GoIrish pic.twitter.com/IusR4g1Ioy

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) July 21, 2021

While I’ve talked about the favorable matchup that Meyer has, the offense goes through Kyren Williams. The offensive line in front of him have lost three starters to the NFL. But they have three blue-chip prospects to plug right in and aren’t expected to miss much of a beat. Williams deserve all the preseason accolades he’s received. The Doak Walker Award Watch List member rushed for over a thousand yards last season for Notre Dame. In fact, his best game of the season came against Florida State when he rushed for a whooping 185 yards on 9.7 YPC.

There are fair questions on how Notre Dame will replace it seven NFL departures. But they still illustrate dominance at two positions: RB and TE. Couple that with a dominant offensive line? You have a nightly mismatch for your opponent.

Notre Dame vs Florida State Best Bet

This gets pretty simple when you take a look at the mismatches that the Irish present.

This is a tale of a team that can reload and one that can no longer do that the way they used to. I have to see Florida State take a step forward before I’ll bet on them to do so.

The Irish have the best position group on the field in the offensive line. They have better running back in Williams, and they have the biggest mismatch of either team in Meyer. Depending on your market, you may be able to find receiving props on Meyer and I would to bet the over. Aside from that, a bet on Notre Dame is the way to go.

• Pick: Notre Dame -7 (-110)

Notre Dame vs Florida State Betting Promos