Oklahoma vs TCU Odds and Predictions
- After getting upset in Week 4, the Oklahoma Sooners are at TCU against the unbeaten Horned Frogs
- TCU is off to a 3-0 start, and haven’t scored less than 38 points in their wins
- See below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction
We’re about to find out if 18th-ranked Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas State was a blip, or the start of a collapse from a promising 3-0 start.
The Sooners will travel to TCU for a battle with the unbeaten Horned Frogs, who are fresh of a big win over the SMU Mustangs to move to 3-0 themselves.
This Big 12 tilt gets underway from Amon G Carter Stadium in Fort Worth this Saturday (October 1) at 12pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on ABC.
Oklahoma vs TCU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [18] Oklahoma Sooners | -6.5 (-112) | -275 | Ov 68.5 (-112) |
| TCU Horned Frogs | +6.5 (-109) | +215 | Un 68.5 (-109) |
Odds as of September 27th from Barstool Sporstbook.
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The latest college football odds have the visiting Sooners as 6.5-point road favorites, with a total set at 68.5. TCU is a +215 underdog to win on the moneyline.
Weather won’t be a factor Saturday, with clear, sunny skies and 71-degree weather at kickoff.
Sooners Betting Outlook
After surrendering just 30 points through their first three games, Oklahoma was lit up in a 41-34 loss to KState, the first loss in the Brent Venables era.
ADRIAN MARTINEZ, TAKE A BOW pic.twitter.com/oMycDKoRCT
— Sully Engels (@sullyengels) September 25, 2022
The numbers matched the eye test: OU gave up over 500 yards of offense, and they could not stop the running game. Quarterback Adrian Martinez was a wrecking ball, running 21 times for 148 yards and four touchdowns, while also throwing for 234 yards and a score.
Deuce Vaughn also added 116 yards on 25 totes, as the Wildcats built up a 14-0 lead and never looked back, sending Oklahoma tumbling down the rankings with the loss, from #6 to #18.
https://twitter.com/MrMatthewCFB/status/1573839819939127296
The defensive non-performance overshadowed a pretty electric offensive outing from OU, as Dillon Gabriel was 26-for-39 for 330 yards and four TD passes. Marvin Mims had four grabs for 87 yards, one going for a 50-yard touchdown, and Eric Gray ran for over 100 yards.
All that offense — OU actually had 550 yards to KState’s 509 — still wasn’t enough.
Horned Frogs Betting Outlook
While Venables was suffering his first defeat, TCU’s new head coach Sonny Dykes improved to 3-0 on the year with a 42-34 win over SMU in the annual Iron Skillet game.
He’s HIM 🤫@yodere11 is the fastest and most explosive player in college football. Topped off at an insane 23.47 mph on this touchdown 😳 ( via @statsports )#GoFrogs #DFWBig12Team pic.twitter.com/uaNrWJL3V7
— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) September 27, 2022
Max Duggan was 22-for-29 for 278 yards and three touchdown tosses, while Kendre Miller rumbled for 142 yards on 17 carries, scoring one TD. Emari Demercado added two more scoring runs in the fourth quarter put this one away.
TCU’s running attack currently sits 21st in the NCAA, averaging 215 rush yards a game, at a very healthy 6.33 yards a pop, good for fourth in the nation.
The Sooners are 12th in rushing at over 231 yards per game, and 11th with a 5.71 average.
A stable of running-backs 😤@Offical_dre11 and @Money_E3 had a combined 191 yards on the ground and 3 total TDs. #GoFrogs #DFWBig12Team pic.twitter.com/cEHkQcUWON
— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) September 27, 2022
Their passing game isn’t a slouch, either, currently 27th at just under 295 yards a game (OU is ranked 34th). The Horned Frogs have yet to throw an interception on the year.
The biggest question for TCU is who might be under center. Former Sooner Chandler Morris won the starting job for TCU, but was injured in the opener against Colorado. Morris didn’t play against SMU, but he was dressed, so how Dykes handles this potential issue will be interesting.
Either way, whoever plays pivot will be there to put up points: TCU hasn’t scored less than 38 points in a game this season.
Oklahoma vs TCU Pick
Oklahoma had better not overlook this matchup in anticipation of next week’s showdown with Texas, or they could play themselves out of the Big 12 picture altogether.
They have dominated this matchup, though, having won eight straight meetings, including last year’s 52-31 thrashing. In 22 all-time meetings, OU has 17 wins.
OU is also 4-0 against the spread in their last four after a loss, and 6-2 ATS in October.
#TCU, the only undefeated FBS team in Texas, is 3-0 for the first time since 2017 but is still unproven to many.
The Frogs haven't defeated #OU since 2014 and have a huge opportunity this Saturday.
"To be the best, you have to beat the best," said head coach Sonny Dykes.
— Charles Baggarly (@swaggarly) September 27, 2022
The Horned Frogs are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games, and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference matchups.
This should be high octane, with plenty of offense, but that’s a high total to be messing with.
Look for TCU to find weaknesses in that Oklahoma defense. While I don’t know if I’d pick them to win outright, the home side should be able to at least keep it close.
The Pick:
- TCU +6.5 (-109); 1 unit to win 0.92 units
- Week 4 NCAAF Record: 1-1: Overall: 2-2 ATS, -0.18 units
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
