Oregon vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, and Prediction

• Oregon visits Ohio State clash on Saturday, September 11th, at 12pm ET
• Significant playoff implications are on the line for both teams after lackluster performances in Week 1
• Read below for odds, game preview and betting picks 

Ohio State will welcome fans back to the Horseshoe as it takes on Oregon at 12pm ET Saturday on FOX. Oregon is coming off a narrow 31-24 victory against Fresno State, while Ohio State is coming off a 45-31 victory against Minnesota.

The Buckeyes have never lost a meeting between the two schools. In fact, they will be looking to make it a 10th straight win over the Ducks. This series has seen dominance by Ohio State with an average margin of victory of 15.5. The last meeting between the two schools came in 2015. It saw another decisive victory by Bucky to the tune of 42-20.

Will Ohio State reassert its dominance in this series? Will CJ Stroud get a Heisman boost in a national showcase? Or Will Oregon shock the world and stake its claim for a Pac 12 Playoff Berth?

Ohio State vs Oregon Odds

Odds as of September 9th at DraftKings

Thibodeaux Status Clouds More Serious Issue for Oregon

The biggest storyline for Oregon this week has been the status of Kayvon Thibodeaux.

The future NFL first rounder is one of the most dominant defensive players in College Football. His status for the game remains unknown. He sprained an ankle in the first half of last week’s win against Fresno State.

Head Coach Mario Cristobal told the media that the star was day-to-day. He declined to go into further detail, only saying that Oregon was trying to get him ready. While his status stole the show this week, there is a bigger issue at head for the Ducks.

Kayvon Thibodeaux is going to be a PROBLEM this season 🤭

(via @oregonfootball)pic.twitter.com/Vij9YIHvgX

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 4, 2021

There are serious questions about the offense. That’s a problem when you’re facing Ohio State in Columbus. Not to mention a Columbus that hasn’t been at full capacity in well over a year. Let’s look at last week for the closest example.

Oregon’s passing down success rate was 0% in the third quarter and just 14% in the fourth quarter against Fresno State.

For the game they had an 18% success rate on passing downs.

The Oregon explosiveness rate, a stat that measures exactly what it sounds like it measures, was 1.03. Below the national average, and well below the mark that Ohio State put up against Minnesota. Oregon Quarterback Anthony Brown threw for just 172 yards and a touchdown on 15-of-24 passing.

https://twitter.com/ChrisDHatfield/status/1435956876274020360?s=20

These two simple things are a problem against Ohio State. On the road they become larger issues. Even larger when you consider the differences in the two defenses.

Ohio State had one of the highest success rates as a defense on passing downs in the Big 10 last season. Despite being a pretty terrible passing defense, on passing downs they were great.

In general, Ohio State’s defense is in a different neighborhood than Fresno State’s. The early returns on Oregon’s offense are just that. Yet still, it’s fair to ask the question: iIf Oregon struggled to score at times against Fresno State, can we expect them to put up enough points to hang with Ohio State?

CJ Stroud Primed for a Big Day

For the first half of Ohio State’s win over Minnesota, Ohio State Quarterback CJ Stroud looked human. A young talented player making his first start on the road looked shaky and nervous.

He posted nearly a negative predictive points metric in the first half before completely flipping the script in the second half. Put it another way, he had an interception and zero touchdowns in the first half. He then went on to finish the game with four touchdowns, one interception and 294 yards.

CJ Stroud vs. Minnesota:

1st half:
🔺 8/14, 58 yards
🔺 0 TDs
🔺 1 INT

2nd half:
🔺 5/8, 236 yards
🔺 4 TDs
🔺 0 INTs pic.twitter.com/3orB7RJiNs

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 3, 2021

Stroud remembered that he had two of the best wide receivers in College Football in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Olave finished with 117 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Wilson wasn’t very far behind him, finishing with 80 receiving yards on 5 receptions and a touchdown.

Stroud will have to be salivating at this week’s matchup against Oregon. The Ducks defensive backs posted a large 0 in the defensive havoc category against Fresno State. Defensive havoc is a stat that measures deflections, tackles for losses, among other things.

CHRIS OLAVE FOR 61 YARDS 🔋@OhioStateFB adds on another with less than 5 minutes left to play pic.twitter.com/NEFe76cfGQ

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 3, 2021

In other words, the Oregon defensive backs didn’t have a single pass deflection or tackle for a loss last week. It shows too. Fresno State Quarterback Jake Haener was 30-for-43 on 298 yards passing and one touchdown. He nearly won the game for them.

In the similar vein that we asked the question about the Oregon offense, we will ask the same about the Oregon defense: Can they stop a motivated CJ Stroud?

Oregon vs Ohio State Best Bet

I’m going to put this bluntly: this could get ugly.

Oregon’s offensive issues were already going to be a problem trying to keep up with a high-powered offense. Now? Things just get that more complicated. If Thibodeaux can’t go for the Ducks, then they’ll really struggle to get a decent pass rush on Ohio State. If they can’t do that, they are leaving an average Oregon Secondary in a difficult spot.

I am interested in the first half spread of Ohio State, as well as an over play on the passing yardage of CJ Stroud. However, I’ll reserve my best bet for the full game. 

Pick: Ohio State -14.5 (-110)