Outback Bowl Picks & Odds: Minnesota Looks to Spoil Auburn’s 6-2 ATS Record as Favorites This Season
- All three of Auburn’s losses have come against teams ranked in the top 10
- Minnesota won 10 games in the regular season for the first time since 1905
- Both teams’ offensive coordinators have left since the end of the regular season
Minnesota looks to complete their historic season with a New Year’s day bowl win against Auburn in the Outback Bowl.
The No. 12 Tigers (9-3, 5-3 SEC) are a seven-point favorite over the No. 18 Golden Gophers (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) in the Auburn vs Minnesota odds.
#18 Minnesota vs #12 Auburn Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | +215 | +7 (-115) | Over 53.5 (-115) |
| Auburn | -255 | -7 (-105) | Under 53.5 (-105) |
Odds taken Dec. 27th
Auburn is coming into the game on a high note after beating archrival Alabama 48-45 in a historic iteration of the Iron Bowl. The Tigers’ three losses this season have been to teams currently ranked in the top ten – No. 9 Florida, No. 1 LSU and No. 5 Georgia.
Minnesota appeared headed to great things when it opened the season 9-0. However, the Golden Gophers’ dreams of a Big Ten West title died along with a chance for the College Football Playoff or Rose Bowl appearance with two losses in their final three games as they fell to Iowa and Wisconsin.
The line has changed just slightly since Auburn opened as a 7.5-point favorite.
Tigers’ Defense Superb
While the score against Alabama did not indicate it, Auburn has an outstanding defense. The Tigers returned two interceptions for touchdowns in the victory over the Crimson Tide.
Auburn is 13th in the nation in the scoring defense, allowing 18.6 points a game and ranks 20th in total defense, giving up 323.9 yards a game.
Senior defensive tackle Derrick Brown is one of the top players in the country and is a finalist for the Outland Trophy, Bednarik award, and Nagurski award.
Auburn DT Derrick Brown (@DerrickBrownAU5) Highlights
Brown makes an impact on every play even when he doesn't make the tackle because he's a dominant force. Someone his size shouldn't be able to get into the backfield as quickly as he does
Full Video: https://t.co/lv3QWZVMIc pic.twitter.com/J7cxslOnyz
— JustBombsProductions (@JBP_Official) December 26, 2019
Brown was also the SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week three times during the regular season. Auburn end Marlon Davidson won the honor four times.
Thomas Keys Gophers
Auburn will be challenged by a Minnesota offense featuring quarterback Tanner Morgan and wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson.
Morgan has thrown a school record 28 touchdown passes while completing 66.1 percent of his attempts for 2,975 yards. He has been intercepted just six times.
Bateman (1,170) and Johnson (1,114) became the first Minnesota teammates to have 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. Both have 11 touchdown receptions.
OH MY.
Tough to make a better catch than this one from Minnesota's Rashod Bateman. pic.twitter.com/taXgpnkiJS
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) August 30, 2019
Minnesota is not one one-dimensional, though. Rodney Smith has rushed for 1,094 yards and eight touchdowns.
Here is how the teams stack up in terms of ESPN’s Football Power Index:
| 79.1 (8th) | Offensive efficiency | 59.9 (41st) |
| 61.4 (44th) | Defensive efficiency | 89.9 (3rd) |
| 30.5 (126th) | Special teams efficiency | 54.8 (43rd) |
| 72.7 (19th) | Overall efficiency | 83.4 (10th) |
Offensive Coordinator Shuffle
Auburn has a new offensive coordinator in Chad Morris, who was fired as Arkansas’ head coach in November after going 4-18 in nearly two full seasons and not winning an SEC game. Morris replaces Kenny Dillingham, who left to become OC at Florida State.
Morris was one of the top offensive coordinators in the country at Clemson and Auburn coach Gus Malzahn believes he will make a big impact on freshman quarterback Bo Nix. However, Morris’ influence should be negligible in the Outback Bowl as Malzahn will call the plays.
Chad Morris talking about his Auburn offense!
— W00PIGS000IE (@W00PIGS000IE) December 19, 2019
Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca left for the same job at Big Ten rival Penn State and will not coach against Auburn. He nearly left for West Virginia last December before being enticed to stay with the Golden Gophers with a raise.
Ciarrocca’s offense was 22nd in the nation in scoring this year with a 34.3 average and 50th in total offense (426.8 yards a game).
Tigers Strong ATS
Auburn is 9-3 against the spread this season, one of the best marks in college football, and eight of its 12 games have gone under. Minnesota is .500 ATS at 6-6 and the over has been the winning side in eight of 12 games.
This marks the first meeting between the schools. Auburn is 2-4 in bowls under Malzahn while Minnesota has won its only postseason game with P.J. Fleck as coach, beating Georgia Tech in the Quick Lane Bowl last year.
The Golden Gophers won 10 games in the regular season this year for the first time since 1905. However, Auburn’s defense can be a punishing unit and Minnesota is likely to be out of sorts offensively without Ciarrocca.
The play: Auburn -7 (-105)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
