Point Spread in SMU vs Memphis Moves from Tigers -3 to -5.5; Can Unbeaten Mustangs Keep CFP Hopes Alive?

• The Memphis Tigers have won five straight matchups with the SMU Mustangs
• The Mustangs are ranked No. 15 in the country and are undefeated at 8-0
• SMU is 2-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this season

One of the top-25 games that’s flying under the radar this week is No. 15 SMU (8-0, 4-0 AAC) vs No. 24 Memphis (7-1, 3-1 AAC), which is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday (Nov. 2nd) at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis.

Although it’s early in the week, the SMU vs Memphis odds have already shifted from Memphis -3 to -5.5 as bettors seem to think they’ll spring the “upset” over the undefeated Mustangs.

Are they a good bet in this spot?

SMU Mustangs vs Memphis Tigers Odds

Odds taken October 29, 2019

SMU Looking To Crash The Playoffs

The SMU Mustangs are a perfect 8-0 this season and are in first place in the American Athletic Conference. While it’s still a longshot, if they can stay undefeated, they could have a chance at making the College Football Playoff. Their four-team playoff odds are now at a reasonably optimistic +2000.

The challenge right now is that SMU has played absolutely nobody on their schedule this season. They did go to then-No. 25 TCU and win, but Max Duggan was making his first career start for TCU and the Horned Frogs have lost two more times since then.

SMU also beat a decent Temple team but that was at home. The Owls are much better in their own barn (4-1) than on the road (1-2). Temple also lost badly at home last week to UCF (63-21), which hurts the credibility of SMU’s win.

The Mustangs have been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranked ninth in the country in yards per game (504.1) and sixth in points per game (43.0). We’ll learn more about them against Memphis this week, which is 7-1 SU and arguably their toughest opponent on the season.

Mustangs Nearly Lost To Tulsa

In a sign of just how fragile SMU’s playoff hopes are, they nearly lost at home to Tulsa a few weeks ago. They needed to rally from 21 points down in the fourth quarter just to tie the game. Then they needed to get through three overtimes to win it. Tulsa is a two-win team.

We saw some more fractures in the foundation last week as SMU went on the road to Houston, who is just 3-5, and nearly lost that game too. They were mostly in control but Houston had the ball late with a chance to tie it. SMU ended up winning 34-31. Those performances are likely why bettors are siding with Memphis.

How Good Is Memphis?

Memphis is mostly in the same boat as SMU as they’ve really played no one of significance either. They have a win over Ole Miss out of the SEC, but the Rebels have just three uninspiring wins this year (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Southeast Louisiana) and are ranked 50th in the nation in efficiency in the F/+ ratings.

That’s actually one spot lower than Temple, the only team to hand Memphis a loss this year. The Owls beat the Tigers 30-28 on the strength of three first-half takeaways (four total).

Memphis is also an excellent offensive team, ranking 24th in yards per game and 13th in points per game. They rank slightly better than SMU on defense, allowing 22.9 points per game (34th), but don’t put much stock into that. This is going to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair, as suggested by the 70.5 game total.

What’s The Best Bet?

Memphis actually dominates this series as they’ve won five in a row against SMU. Outside of that, though, I’m not sure that they deserve to be such a big favorite. If the line keeps climbing, I’ll take the points. It’s not that SMU has a real edge here – this game is a complete toss-up – but they’ve done well in close contests.

Half of SMU’s wins have come in one-score games and getting 5.5 points, I’ll take them to at least cover the number.