Texas vs Oklahoma State Prediction, Lines, Odds & Picks
- #22 Texas is laying 6.5 points in the Longhorns vs Cowboys odds on Saturday (Oct. 22nd) in Week 8 action
- The Longhorns have reeled off three straight wins, while Oklahoma State is fresh off its first loss
- Keep reading for all the Texas vs Oklahoma State odds, plus analysis and best bets
It may be cliche to say, but it looks like Texas is back folks. After a narrow loss to #6 Alabama in Week 2, and a three-point loss to Texas Tech without starting QB Quinn Ewers, the #22 ranked Longhorns (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) have reeled off three straight wins, and put themselves back in contention to win the conference crown.
They’ll look to continue their impressive play on Saturday in Week 8, when they hit the road to challenge #11 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) had their perfect season ruined last week, losing a heartbreaking double-overtime decision to #8 TCU.
Despite the superior record, oddsmakers have elected to make the Pokes underdogs in the college football odds for this pivotal clash.
#20 Texas vs #11 Oklahoma State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Longhorns | -6.5 (-110) | -240 | O 61 (-110) |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | U 61 (-110) |
Odds as of October 19th at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.
Texas opened up as 3-point favorites, but that number didn’t last long. Money came pouring in on the Longhorns, bumping the line all the way to -6.5 where it currently stands.
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The total opened at 61 and has held firm there early in the week, but don’t be surprised if it ticks down before game time. Sharps are hitting the under hard as of Wednesday night, with 21% of the over/under wagers accounting for 78% of the money that’s been bet on the total.
Kickoff for this Big 12 clash is set for 3:30 pm ET on ABC, with 72-degree temperatures currently projected in the forecast.
Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis
One of the big differences between this year’s Texas program and last years is that they’re winning close games. In 2021, the Longhorns lost five conference tilts by one score, but they refused to let that happen last week versus Iowa State.
QBs with the highest big time throw rates this season:
🎯 Quinn Ewers: 10.0%
🎯 Graham Mertz: 9.9%
🎯 DJ Uiagalelei: 9.4% pic.twitter.com/OBIwl7COA6— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 12, 2022
Trailing by 4 points late in the fourth quarter, Ewers engineered a go-ahead touchdown drive with four minutes remaining. He threw his third touchdown pass of the day to Xavier Worthy to put Texas ahead for good, and then the defense did the rest.
The Longhorns forced a Cyclones fumble with two and a half minutes left to play to seal the victory. Texas snapped a three-game losing streak against Iowa State along the way, and moved to 3-1 in conference play.
They currently boast the shortest price tag in the Big 12 odds, and own a top-20 offense and defense in the country. The Longhorns rank 20th in points per game, and 11th in offensive efficiency. Texas is undefeated in games started and finished by Ewers, while Bijan Robinson just posted his fifth straight 100+ yard game on the ground.
Even if you don’t follow college football, Bijan Robinson is a name you need to know for fantasy in 2023. He’s the closest thing we’ve ever seen to Barry Sanders. pic.twitter.com/mkYHX73dkt
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) October 15, 2022
Robinson ranks fourth in the nation in touchdowns with 11, scoring in every game but one.
Defensively, the Longhorns have surrendered 21 points or less in all but one game this season, ranking ninth in opponent yards per play.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Analysis
The Cowboys meanwhile, blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to TCU before falling 43-40 in double OT. Oklahoma State got sub-par QB play from Spencer Sanders in the passing game, but the Heisman Trophy odds longshot made up for it with his legs.
Sanders completed only 44% of his passes for 245 yards, one touchdown and one INT. He salvaged his day with 68 rushing yards and two scores, including this 29-yard scamper.
Spencer Sanders is so damn fun to watch pic.twitter.com/nIHK2rVT4v
— Tim England (@tengland_150) October 15, 2022
Outside of Sanders’ legs, and 72 rushing yards and 79 receiving yards from Dominic Richardson, the team underwhelmed offensively. They were outgained by 124 yards, and lost the time of possession battle by six minutes.
The Cowboys enter play with perhaps an overrated offense that’s been boosted up by 58+ point performances versus Central Michigan and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Oklahoma State ranks seventh in the nation in points per game, but just 73rd in yards per play, and 61st in yards per pass.
Defensively, the 43 points allowed weren’t even a season-high, which has to be concerning. They rank 90th in scoring defense, 87th in opponent yards per play, and 129th in passing yards allowed per game.
Texas vs Oklahoma State Prediction
The Cowboys overrated offense is surely part of the reason why big-money bettors are hitting this under so hard, but there are trends pointing to this game underwhelming offensively as well.
Texas has seen three straight contests fall short of the total, and are 7-2 to the under dating back to last season.
Oklahoma State likes to play fast, but the Longhorns are the exact opposite. Texas ranks 105th in pace, and if the Longhorns get their way, they’ll bleed this clock dry on offense. As the heavy favorites, Texas is expected to control the action, and if that happens, the Cowboys will likely see a few less possessions than normal.
Fewer possessions equal fewer opportunities to score.
Pick: Under 61 (-110)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
