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UCLA vs NC State Holiday Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Updated Dec 27, 2021 · 9:00 AM PST

Dorian Thompson-Robinson looks for an open receiver
FILE - UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson pulls back to throw a pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against California on Nov. 27, 2021, in Pasadena, Calif. Thompson-Robinson was voted to The Associated Press All Pac-12 team on Friday, Dec. 10. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
  • #18 NC State is a 2-point favorite over UCLA on Tuesday (December 28th, 8 pm ET) in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl, at Petco Park, in San Diego, CA
  • The Bruins won their final three games of the season by a combined score of 148-67
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

It’s hard to believe but UCLA is getting set to make its first bowl appearance since 2017. The Bruins will take on #18 NC State in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl on Tuesday (December 28th), which will mark the Wolfpack’s seventh bowl appearance in the past eight years.

UCLA vs #18 NC State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
UCLA Bruins +105 +2 (-110) O 59.5 (-115)
NC State Wolfpack -125 -2 (-110) U 59.5 (-105)

Odds as of Dec. 27th at DraftKings.

NC State is currently a 2-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 59.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 pm ET at Petco Park in San Diego, CA, with Fox providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast currently projects cloudy skies, with 14 mph winds, and 48 degree night time temperatures.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Trends

The Wolfpack has won just three of their past six bowl games, and none since a victory over Arizona State in the 2017 Sun Bowl. NC State racked up an impressive 9-3 season in 2021, and is just one win shy of their first 10-win campaign since 2002. Their resume includes a double-OT win over Clemson (ranked 9th at the time), and an epic comeback victory over rival UNC in their season finale.

Offensively, the team is led by quarterback Devin Leary, who boasted the third best passer rating (157.0) in the ACC. He captains the nation’s 19th best passing attack, throwing for 3,433 yards and 35 TD.

The Wolfpack ranked 30th this season in points per game (32.0), while also ranking 30th in points per play, and 48th in yards per play. They averaged 39 points per outing over their final three contests, and boast one of the better defenses in the country.

NC State surrendered just over 20 points per outing this season, ranking 25th in total yards allowed, and fifth in opponent third down conversion rate (30.1%). As good as their defense is however, it’s worth noting two of their worst games of the season came in their final three outings. They coughed up 42 points to #17 Wake Forest, and 30 points to North Carolina.

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UCLA Bruins Betting Trends

UCLA meanwhile, is in the midst of its best stretch of football of the season. The Bruins closed out the regular season with three straight victories over Cal, USC, and Colorado by a combined score of 148-67.

Chip Kelly’s crew beat LSU in September but didn’t post another victory over a top-60 program for the rest of the season. UCLA will be without a pair of key players thanks to COVID, as leading tackler Quantrezz Knight and offensive lineman Atonio Mafi will sit out.

Offensively, the Bruins want to run the ball. They ranked 15th nationally in rushing yards, and feature two quality running backs and dual threat QB. Both Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown averaged over 5.5 yards per carry, while quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson posted 609 rushing yards and 9 rushing TD this season.

UCLA averages 215 rushing yards per game and are undefeated this season when running for at least 200 yards. They rank 14th in points per game (36.5), 12th in points per play, and 25th in yards per play.

Defensively, the numbers aren’t quite so impressive. The Bruins surrender an average of 26.8 points per game, and coughed up at least 33 points on five different occasions.

UCLA vs NC State Pick

Not surprisingly, a strong offense and shaky defense has been the recipe for the over dominating UCLA contests recently. Four of the Bruins’ final five games cleared the total, while UCLA scored 42 or more points in each of their final three outings.

Not to be outdone, the Wolfpack are no strangers to high totalled games themselves. Four of their past five contests went over the total, as did seven of their last 10.

NC State should have no problem putting up points on UCLA, and the Bruins dominant rushing attack has an excellent chance of answering back. On the off chance UCLA struggles on the ground, bettors should take comfort in the fact that Thompson-Robinson is fresh off two of his best performances of the season through the air. In the Bruins’ finale he threw 3 TD passes, and the week before he put up a season-high 349 passing yards and 4 TD.

Pick: Over 59.5 (-115)

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