Updated National Championship Odds After Week 5 – Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Texas See Major Fades Following Losses

• The National Championship odds of the Texas Longhorns, Mississippi State Bulldogs and Oklahoma Sooners all lengthened following Saturday losses
• Texas fell from +1600 to +8000 following a 33-31 loss to TCU; Oklahoma moved from +5000 to +6600 following the second straight setback suffered by the Sooners
• See updated national championship odds for the top ten teams after Week 5 of the college football season

When it comes to the NCAA football CFP National Championship, there’s an age-old theory. It suggests that if a team is going to lose a game and still remain in contention for the title, it’s always best to lose that game early in the season.

Losing two games, though, is almost always fatal to title hopes.

The Texas Longhorns and Mississippi State Bulldogs best hope the early-loss theory holds water, because both schools went down for the count on Saturday.  The Longhorns saw their betting line grow from +1600 to +8000.  The Bulldogs sit at +10000 in the National Championship odds following a loss to Arkansas.

The Oklahoma Sooners lost for the second successive Saturday and can almost certainly kiss their title hopes goodbye. Surprisingly, Oklahoma’s betting line only lengthened from +5000 to +6600.

2021 CFP National Championship Odds

Odds as of Oct. 4th at FanDuel

Since the introduction of the College Football Playoff in 2014, no two-loss school has qualified for participation in the four-team competition.

Texas Two Step

One week after surviving by the skin of their teeth, the Longhorns saw their luck finally run out against the TCU Horned Frogs. Texas was looking to open a season 3-0 for the first time under fourth-year head coach Tom Herman.

A week earlier, Texas eked out a 63-56 overtime victory over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Longhorns rallied from a 15-point deficit for that victory.

Sam Ehlinger on the TCU loss:

"I think we stopped ourselves. We didn't play well enough to win."

"Losing bothers me the most. This University deserves better."

Sam also told Keontay Ingram that he (Ehlinger) was more to blame for the loss than his RB.#HookEm

— Dennis de la Pena (@dennisonfox7) October 3, 2020

On Saturday, there were just too many mistakes to overcome for Texas, as the Longhorns lost to TCU for the second straight season. Texas committed 12 penalties for 92 yards, 70 of which came in the first half.

Longhorns linebacker Juwan Mitchell was ejected from the game for targeting during the first quarter as well. In the final two minutes of the opening half, Longhorns senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger was picked off, setting up a TCU field goal.

This hit by Juwan Mitchell was declared targeting..

Mitchell was ejected as a result. pic.twitter.com/1UGz6byRDn

— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) October 3, 2020

Still, Texas was poised for its second comeback victory in as many games when Longhorns running back Keontay Ingram fumbled on the TCU 1-yard line with 2:32 remaining in the fourth quarter.

It was the eighth loss of seven points or fewer for Texas since the start of the 2018 season.

It’s Already Too Late for Sooners

Following consecutive losses to Kansas State and Iowa State, it didn’t take long for it to get later in the season for the Sooners. Sitting with a 1-2 record, historically that’s pretty much a death knell to a team’s National Championship hopes.

The 2007 LSU Tigers were the most recent two-loss school to win a national title. And they were the first since the 1960 Minnesota Golden Gophers, who were 8-2.

🎶 Iowa State celebrates the upset win over Oklahoma 🎶

It's the first time the Cyclones beat the Sooners in Ames since 1960. pic.twitter.com/mD98k6UU83

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 4, 2020

Oklahoma’s defense and conditioning both look to be sub-par. The Sooners gave up 417 yards in Saturday’s 37-30 loss at Iowa State. They surrendered 400 yards in the 38-35 loss one week earlier to Kansas State, 334 of that coming through the air.

The five-time defending Big 12 champs squandered a 35-14 first-half lead in the loss to the Wildcats, coughing up 31 second-half points. The Cyclones ran up 24 second-half points in their 37-30 triumph.

https://twitter.com/tCFBCountry/status/1312594814634950656?s=20

After back-to-back-to-back years of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts under center, Spencer Rattler is far from a Heisman Trophy-caliber QB. He’s the first Oklahoma QB to lose consecutive games since Josh Heupel in 1999 and the first to lose a game in Ames since Jimmy Carpenter in 1960.

Overall, it just has to be said that the Big 12 is weak sauce when it comes to a conference. Kansas State lost to Arkansas State. Iowa State lost to Louisiana. There’s no national power house here.

Bulldogs More Bark Than Bite

Fresh off a win over defending champion LSU in the debut of new head coach Mike Leach, #16 Mississippi State (1-1) fell 21-14 to an Arkansas squad that had lost 20 straight SEC games. It was the first conference victory for the Razorbacks since a 38-37 decision over Ole Miss on Oct. 28, 2017.

Like Texas and Oklahoma, the Bulldogs squandered their chances to claim victory. The Arkansas defense stuffed Mississippi State on fourth-and-short inside Razorbacks territory. After the Bulldogs defense forced an Arkansas punt with 2:30 to play, Mississippi State’s Jaden Walley fumbled the punt.

Just 5 days after shooting this, Mississippi State lost to Arkansas, who hadn’t won an SEC game in over 1000 days. https://t.co/FP0d01OThK

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 4, 2020

One week earlier, Leach’s Air Raid offense sliced up LSU for an SEC-record 623 passing yards. However, the Arkansas zone defense limited Bulldogs QB KJ Costello to 313 yards and one TD on 43 completions, a 5.3 yards-per-play average.

Four of Mississippi State’s next six games are against #13 Texas A&M, #2 Alabama, #7 Auburn and #4 Georgia. There are a lot more losses to come for the Bulldogs before this season is done.