USC vs UCLA Prediction, Odds, Spread and Picks

• #7 USC is laying 2 points on the road in the USC vs UCLA odds in a pivotal Week 12 college football matchup on Saturday (Nov. 19)
• The Trojans need a victory to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive
• Check out the latest USC vs UCLA odds below, plus analysis, injury news and best bets

It may not be the Pack-12 after dark, but this week’s Pac-12 primetime contest between #7 USC (9-1, 7-1 Pac-12) and #16 UCLA (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) is can’t miss television.

That’s because the stakes for a matchup between these two rivals haven’t been this high in over a decade. USC still has an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff, and a win on Saturday versus UCLA would move them one step closer to securing a spot in the conference championship game.

UCLA meanwhile, is still live to advance to the Pac-12 title game as well, but they’ll need a win over the Trojans and some help along the way.

Online sportsbooks have pegged the visitors as the chalk in the college football odds, although the matchup is projected to be extremely tight.

USC vs UCLA Odds

Odds as of November 18th at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

USC is currently a 2-point favorite, in a contest with a total of 76. The spread handle is garnering a 50/50 split as of Friday morning, but the Bruins money is coming off just 31% of the ATS bets. That means the big-money bettors who are weighing in on this game like UCLA.

DRAFTKINGS
SPORTSBOOK

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly + a No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

+ A NO SWEAT NBA SGP

GET PROMO

Kickoff is scheduled for 8 pm et at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast is calling for a perfect night for football, with clear skies and 68-degree temperatures on deck.

USC Trojans Betting Analysis

The lone blemish on the Trojans record is a 43-42 defeat to #10 Utah. If not for that loss, they’d be a top contender to reach the College Football Playoff and would boast a shorter price in the National Championship odds than their current +2000 tag.

That being said, their hopes for a spot in the final four are not dead. They need to close out the regular season with two more wins, and then claim victory in the conference championship game and hope that one or two of the top teams in front of them stumble.

Like most Pac-12 programs, USC is fueled by an explosive offense. They rank third in the nation in scoring and points per play, while checking in at number four in yards per play and sixth in total offense.

I don't know that USC can beat UCLA/ND/Pac-12 title game opponent, but if they do they'd be a 12-1 P5 champ with possibly four Top 25 wins and a close road loss.

They'd be in.

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 16, 2022

Senior Caleb Williams has been phenomenal in his first season in the Pac-12, posting a 30-to-2 TD-to-INT rate. He boasts the sixth-best QBR in the country and is a top-five Heisman Trophy odds candidate.

The receiving corps is led by Pitt transfer Jordan Addison, who’s put up 587 yards and seven scores in only eight games.

The Trojans rushing attack averages 183 yards per outing, but just suffered a massive loss. Leading rusher Travis Dye is done for the season, opening the door for Austin Jones to step up. Jones averages 6.4 yards per carry, while Williams has also scampered for six rushing scores.

Defensively, USC can be had, just like their counterparts. The Trojans have surrendered 35+ points in three of their last four. Last year against UCLA, they allowed 62 points and 609 total yards.

UCLA Bruins Betting Analysis

Bruins QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has already called another 60+ point outing for his team ahead of Saturday’s clash.

UCLA is coming off a gut-wrenching 34-28 defeat to Arizona in a game they were favored by 20 points. For the first time all season, the Bruins failed to put up at least 30 points, while Thompson-Robinson posted his worst QBR of the season by over 37 points.

Thompson-Robinson has a favorable matchup against USC on Saturday, as the Trojans rank 93rd in passing yards allowed. Last year in this matchup, DTR accounted for 6 total touchdowns, including four through the air.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson said UCLA wants to break 60 points against USC and be even better than it was last season at the Coliseum.

— Ben Bolch (@latbbolch) November 14, 2022

The same can be said for the Pac-12’s leading rusher Zach Charbonnet, who’s fresh off a 3 TD performance. USC ranks 115th in rushing success rate allowed, and Charbonnet hit them for 167 yards and a score in 2021.

Defensively, the Bruins’ struggles have been well-documented. They rank 99th in passing yards allowed, and yield one of the highest completion percentages in the nation. Last week they coughed up 315 passing yards to Arizona’s Jay de Laura, at 11.3 yards a clip.

USC vs UCLA Prediction

Each of the last four meetings between these two programs have cleared the total. I wouldn’t fault anyone for betting over 76 in this matchup, but I like targeting UCLA instead.

Yes, they tripped up last week against Arizona, but the Wildcats also played USC extremely tough losing by just one score. It’s also true they’re vulnerable on defense, but so too is their opponent.

USC vs UCLA Recent History

The Bruins had previously won back-to-back games by a combined 39 points, and are 4-1 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of 2021. They’ve covered in five of seven conference games so far, including three of four at home.

The Trojans on the other hand, are just 3-4 ATS in Pac-12 play. Dating back to 2016, they are 1-6 against the spread when the line falls in between -3 and +3.

Pick: UCLA Bruins +2 (-110)