Aaron Rodgers’ 2019 NFL MVP Odds as Short as +650 Ahead of Season Opener
- Aaron Rodgers is one of the favorites to win NFL MVP this season
- His average odds to win it have gone down; is he worth the bet?
- Who the best bet is to win the league’s most valuable player
Entering his 15th NFL season Aaron Rodgers finds himself in the conversation to win the league MVP award, as he’s done twice before (2011, 2014), with his average NFL MVP odds dropping from +1300 to +1000 following the retirement of Andrew Luck.
Should the Packers signal-caller be the guy you plunk cash down on to be the league’s best player or are there smarter options to lay cash on?
Odds to Win 2019 NFL MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +400 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +650 |
| Drew Brees | +800 |
| Carson Wentz | +800 |
| Baker Mayfield | +1000 |
| Tom Brady | +1200 |
| Russell Wilson | +1600 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2000 |
| Philip Rivers | +2000 |
| Matt Ryan | +2600 |
Odds taken 09/05/19.
Rodgers’ Odds Too Low to Bet
The last two years haven’t exactly gone according to plan for Rodgers and Green Bay, with the star QB missing nine games in 2017 with a broken collarbone and then seeing his touchdown numbers drop dramatically last season compared to his MVP years, amid two straight missed playoff appearances.
https://twitter.com/packers/status/1169609626758897664?s=20
Can you really go into 2019 saying Rodgers is behind only Patrick Mahomes to win the league MVP? With a rookie head coach in Matt Lafleur and a new system that will surely have kinks to be ironed out and not a ton of experience or production behind Davante Adams at wide out, he’ll be hard-pressed to make it happen.
Most Packers Receiving Yards in 2018 Currently on Roster
| Player | Yards |
|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 1,386 |
| Jimmy Graham | 636 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 581 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 328 |
| Geronimo Allison | 303 |
Outside of Adams do any of those players inspire much confidence to put up massive numbers for Rodgers? It’s not like they’ve lost much in production with Randall Cobb and his 383 yards moving on to Dallas.
Comparing Rodgers’ MVP Seasons to 2018
It might be a tad presumptuous to look at the height of Rodgers career and juxtapose that to last season and assume he won’t reach heights previously recorded because Rodgers was still very solid last year and his yardage numbers were pretty well on par with his MVP years. The concerning stats, however, are a considerable drop in completion percentage, touchdowns and QB Rating.
Aaron Rodgers’ MVP Seasons & 2018
| Year | Yards | Completion Percentage | TD/INT | Sacks | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 4,643 | 68.3% | 45/6 | 36 | 122.5 |
| 2014 | 4,381 | 65.6% | 38/5 | 28 | 112.2 |
| 2018 | 4,442 | 62.3% | 25/2 | 49 | 97.6 |
Perhaps with the shackles off and the rumored years-long feud with Head Coach Mike McCarthy in the rearview mirror Rodgers can regain that past form and dominate again. I wouldn’t totally put it past him, but it’s not as if Green Bay got him much help, using just three of their eight draft choices on offensive players (guard Elgton Jenkins, running back Dexter Williams and Tight End Jace Sternberger who has since been placed on injured reserve).
.@AaronRodgers12 always seems to step up against the @ChicagoBears.
Down 3 scores and on one leg, he brought the @packers all the way back.#NFL100 pic.twitter.com/25djv3H2bW
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) September 5, 2019
2019 NFL MVP Best Bet and Best Value Pick
Drew Brees nearly nabbed his first MVP award last year but was robbed by an otherworldly performance by Patrick Mahomes. This is the year that Brees puts together his best season with the last two heartbreaking playoff losses fueling his fire.
At +2000, the Texans Deshaun Watson is a fantastic value pick given that he now has a sturdy left tackle in Laremy Tunsil and recently acquired Kenny Stills to pair with top targets DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
