Best Titans vs Packers Same-Game Parlay for TNF
- Check out our three-leg Titans vs Packers same-game parlay for the Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup that pays +300 odds
- Will Green Bay defend home field? Can the game stay under 43.5 points?
- Don’t miss our Week 11 Titans vs Packers same-game parlay picks below
Week 11 on the NFL calendar kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Titans (6-3, 3-2 away) visit the Packers (4-5, 3-2 away).
Nasty weather is expected tonight at Lambeau Field, and if history has taught us anything it’s don’t bet against Aaron Rodgers in below-freezing temperatures.
As we’ll explore, the reigning two-time NFL MVP has an incredible track record when the air is so cold you can see your breath. That fact hasn’t gone unnoticed in the betting market.
The line for TNF opened Green Bay -1 and has been bet all the way up to -3.5 per the Titans vs Packers public betting splits. Even at the new number, Green Bay is drawing slightly more spread money than its AFC opponent. We agree with the line move towards Rodgers and Co. and our Titans vs Packers same-game parlay reflects that.
Titans vs Packers Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers -2.5 | -125 |
| Aaron Rodgers Under 249.5 Passing Yards | -130 |
| Game Total Under 45.5 | -170 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +300 |
Odds as of November 17th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings promo code where you can get Derrick Henry’s Anytime TD odds boosted to +100 for TNF.
Our TEN-GB same-game parlay only features three legs, but still pays out +300 odds if it hits. The first leg is a bet on the Packers winning by a field goal or more, while the second leg targets Rodgers’ passing volume and the anchor leg focuses on an alternate total.
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Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over his 18-year career, Rodgers is 28-8 when the temperature dips below freezing. His winning percentage jumps from 67 to 76 percent in such conditions, and the forecast for TNF is calling for scattered flurries, 20+ mph wind gusts and sub-20 degree temperatures.
Nasty weather certainly favors Green Bay as they are accustomed to it. However, that’s not the only reason to target them tonight.
ＰＲＩＭＥtime!#TNF | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/g6SMMP9itB
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 17, 2022
Tennessee has been hit hard by injuries. Four starters have already been ruled out in the Titans vs Packers injury report, including pass rusher Bud Dupree, safety Amani Hooker and kicker Randy Bullock.
Tennessee’s 6-3 record looks great on paper, but a closer look at their schedule reveals a different story. The Titans have yet to beat a team with an above .500 record. They’ve faced three such teams and have lost each time by a combined score of 82-44.
Granted, the Packers are also below .500, but this was a team with Super Bowl aspirations before the season started, and is still very much in the hunt for an NFC playoff spot.
Aaron Rodgers Under 249.5 Passing Yards
A look at the advanced metrics suggests Green Bay should deploy a pass-heavy game script tonight. Tennessee is the number one rush defense per DVOA, while our Titans vs Packers picks note that Tennessee’s secondary surrenders the second most passing yards per game.
That’s made Rodgers a popular target in the Titans vs Packers player props, but the identity of this Green Bay team is its run game.
The Packers boast the sixth-best rushing attack in the league per DVOA. Believe it or not, that’s 10 spots higher than a Tennessee team that features Derrick Henry.
Aaron Rodgers Passing Stats – Last 5 Games
| ATT-CMP | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|
| 14-20 | 224 | 3 |
| 23-43 | 291 | 1 |
| 19-30 | 203 | 2 |
| 23-35 | 194 | 2 |
| 26-41 | 246 | 1 |
Green Bay is fresh off rushing for 207 yards against Dallas’ number two-ranked defense, and the Packers would be wise to apply a similar strategy against the Titans. Pound the rock with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and take advantage of crowded boxes through play action.
Rodgers excelled in the play-action game last week, going nine of 11 for 148 yards and two scores. Note, he only threw the ball 20 times for a total of 224 yards, while the team ran a season-high 39 times. Expect similar numbers tonight.
Game Total Under 45.5
Running the ball obviously slows down the game, and reduces the number of plays each team gets off. Less volume typically leads to fewer points, and the Titans are no strangers to low-scoring games.
Tennessee has seen seven of its nine games fall under the total, including each of its last six contests. Unders in prime time games are 20-11 this season so far, while Green Bay outings are 6-4 to the under.
Headed to Green Bay Thursday night for the Packers game? It will be a cold night with temperatures in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.
Driving up and back, and during the game, expect off and on snow showers. #wiwx pic.twitter.com/XfndIwent5— Kristen Kirchhaine (@KristenWeather) November 17, 2022
We anticipate the Packers will run the ball on the majority of their plays on TNF, but we know the Titans will. Only two teams pass less frequently than Tennessee, and run defense is clearly Green Bay’s weakness.
The Packers rank 30th against the run per DVOA and have allowed a league-high six games of at least 150 rushing yards.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
