More Bettors Picking Chiefs Over Patriots, But More Money is on New England as 3-Point Favorites

• The New England Patriots are just 2-2 in their last four games.
• The Patriots have averaged 18.0 points per game over their last four after averaging 31.3 over their first eight games.
• Check our betting preview, with odds, analysis and a prediction for this tilt

The New England Patriots will host the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. After the Patriots looked shaky last week in a loss to the Houston Texans, more of the bettors are taking the Chiefs this week. Is that the right side here or are the Patriots the better play?

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Handle & Odds

Odds taken Dec. 7

Patriots Coming Off a Concerning Loss

It’s rare that we’re worrying about the Patriots in the month of December, but there are some concerns as we head into Week 14. That’s because they’re fresh off a demoralizing loss on the road to the Houston Texans. Houston dominated the game as the Patriots were down 21-9 entering the fourth quarter.

Although Tom Brady’s final numbers look good (326 yards, three touchdowns and a pick), a lot of that was compiled when the game was mostly out of hand. The Pats couldn’t do much offensively when the game was still in the balance.

New England’s offense has really labored over their last four games as they’ve averaged just 18.0 points per game. The team is 2-2 in that stretch. They had averaged 31.3 points per game through their first eight contests, each of which they won. Bettors are wondering if they can hang around in this game if the Chiefs force them into a shootout.

Chiefs Enter Week 14 with Confidence

At 8-4, the Chiefs have definitely not had the season they were hoping. They lost only four times in the regular season last year, so losing four times at the three-quarter-point was not ideal. However, the Chiefs are coming off one of their better wins of the year and if they can win out, they can match their 12-4 record of a season ago.

Some people were wondering if the AFC West was up for grabs as the Chiefs hosted the Oakland Raiders last week, but Kansas City smoked them 40-9. While it was a dominant win by the scoreline, the Chiefs still have some areas of concern. Patrick Mahomes had just 175 yards passing while the offense totaled 259.

The Chiefs’ offense will have to do better than that as they are now set to go up against a defense that allows a league-best 12.1 points per game.

What’s the Best Bet?

Bettors are split on this game as we see 53% of the handle and 66% of the bet count on the Chiefs. However, the Patriots are getting the bulk of the sharp action at 59%.

Overall, my feeling is that it’s best to avoid the side and focus on the total. In terms of the side, the Patriots’ offense has gone into a shell and while the Chiefs’ offense can be explosive, Mahomes has totaled just 357 passing yards in the last two weeks combined.

The Patriots’ path to victory here is to run the ball, play ball control and keep the Chiefs’ offense on the sidelines. Coming off an ugly effort in Houston, I expect the offense to be slightly crisper and to find ways to be more effective on third downs.

Keep in mind that the Patriots also have some kicking woes as they cut Kai Forbath this week. That could help us for the under. Also keep in mind that eight of the last 11 Patriots December games have gone over as well as 30 of their last 49 as a favorite. I’m expecting this game to have fewer points than the oddsmakers expect.