Buccaneers Lose to Bears, See 2021 Super Bowl Odds Fade to +1600
- Tampa Bay now has the sixth shortest Super Bowl odds following its loss to Chicago
- All three of the Bucs wins have come against teams ranked 18th or worse by DVOA
- Read below for analysis on Tampa Bay’s new Super Bowl price and whether or not it makes them a value to win it all this season?
It may be time to slow down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hype train. Tom Brady and company are now 3-2 following Thursday night’s loss in Chicago, and are in danger of falling out of first place in the NFC South.
"We'll see who we are next week."
🗣: @BruceArians pic.twitter.com/qrUoTscOHu
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 9, 2020
Thursday’s performance against the Bears didn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the Bucs’ futures market, as their Super Bowl price was lengthened by over 40%. That removes Tampa Bay from top-five contender status, and they now sit behind 2-2 New Orleans, and on par with undefeated Buffalo.
Super Bowl 55 Odds
| Team | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +380 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +600 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +800 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1100 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1200 |
| Buffalo Bills | +1600 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1600 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1700 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2000 |
Odds taken Oct. 9th at BetMGM.
The Buccaneers Super Bowl odds now sit at +1600, but you could argue that price is still too short.
Bucs By the Numbers
A closer look at Tampa Bay’s opponents reveals they haven’t beaten a single team that projects to be playing January football. All three of the Bucs wins have come against teams ranked 18th or worse by DVOA, and a loss to Chicago isn’t exactly a reflection of a top notch team.
Most people will say the Chicago #Bears are a fraudulent 4-1 team. Well, now we know one thing for sure. The Tampa Bay #Buccaneers were a fraudulent 3-1 team…#NFLWeek5
— Shane G. Tyler (@SGTyler15) October 9, 2020
The Bears entered Week 5 as the 22nd ranked team by DVOA, and came away with a victory despite racking up just 243 yards of offense.
Tom Brady looked nothing like the QB that threw five touchdown passes in Week 4, as he completed a season-low 61% of his attempts en route to his worst QBR since Week 1.
Why can't Tom Brady just own up to screwing up?? Don't try to make up some BS excuse. And then not shaking Foles hand after the game?? Rough night for the GOAT.
— Danny Kanell (@dannykanell) October 9, 2020
Brady appeared to lose track of downs during a failed game-winning drive attempt and was seen screaming on the sidelines at teammates following an ugly 3rd quarter possession. The six-time Super Bowl champion lost for the first time in 43 starts after jumping out to a 13-point lead, and dating back to last season has thrown three pick-sixes in his past six outings.
Cause For Concern
Like many teams around the NFL, Tampa Bay has been hit hard by injuries. They faced Chicago without five key offensive players, headlined by Chris Godwin, and both of their starting wide receivers (Mike Evans and Scotty Miller) played despite being limited by injuries.
Buccaneers fear that DT Vita Vea suffered a season-ending broken ankle last night, per source. Vea undergoing an MRI today to confirm.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 9, 2020
The Bucs didn’t leave Soldier Field unscathed, as stud defensive tackle Vita Vea reportedly suffered a season ending broken ankle. Vea ranked second in defensive grade and pass rush grade among defensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus, and his loss will have a major impact on a much improved Tampa Bay defense.
Another reason to be concerned about the Bucs championship prospects is their continued lack of discipline. Tampa Bay entered Week 5 as the league’s third most penalized team, and racked up 11 penalties for a total of 109 yards in its loss to Chicago. The Bucs are averaging 8.4 penalties per game, twice as many as NFC heavyweight Green Bay, and nearly four times as many as New England.
Fade Tampa Bay Futures
Tampa Bay may be 3-2, but they needed the biggest comeback in franchise history just to beat the Chargers last Sunday.
Justin Herbert is passing all over a #Bucs defense that was ranked highly coming into this game. He's crazy impressive.
He's now 18 of 22 passing for 279 yards and 3 TDs.#Chargers re-take the lead 31-28.pic.twitter.com/oWx7d7N3Hu
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 4, 2020
For the first time all season, they struggled in the red zone against the Bears, converting just one trip into a touchdown, after scoring a TD on 80% of their previous trips through four weeks.
They’ve been decimated by injuries and are extremely undisciplined, not exactly calling cards of championship calibre teams. They’re still overvalued in the Super Bowl market, and are not even favored to win their own division. A full fade on Bucs futures is strongly recommended.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
