Chiefs vs Chargers Week 11 Picks, Odds & Betting Preview – 92% of Sharp Money Is on LA

• Chiefs and Chargers meet in Mexico City for crucial AFC West tilt
• A KC loss, and they fall out of first, staring up at the Oakland Raiders
• Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

It’s the last international NFL game this season, and there are serious stakes involved, as the Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) take on the Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) on Monday Night Football from Mexico City (Nov. 18, 8:15pm ET).

Oakland’s win over the Bengals has them in a virtual tie for first in the AFC West, and a Chiefs loss would drop them out of first and muddy up the division with Los Angeles still within range of a division crown.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Odds

*Odds taken November 17

According to BookMaker, 66% of all ATS money is on the Chargers, and by bet count, 79% of all bets are being made on Los Angeles. And if you’re keeping up with the sharps, they’re throwing almost all their money on the Bolts, to the tune of 92%.

Let’s find out which way you should be leaning in this one.

Chiefs’ Offensive Line Finally Back Together

Offense really isn’t the problem for the Chiefs’ recent struggles, as Patrick Mahomes tossed for 446 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Titans, which should have been more than enough to deliver a W.

.@PatrickMahomes first game back?

A casual 446 yards + 3 TDs day. 🚀@Chiefs | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/3fHaWRza8Z

— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2019

But that side of the ball should be even more potent, perhaps even closer to the destructive level of production we witnessed a season ago, as Eric Fisher and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif return to the offensive line. Mitchell Schwartz, who left last week’s game with an injury, is back as well, meaning the Chiefs will feature their starting five linemen for the first time since Week 2.

If the Chiefs lose on MNF, they would be moved entirely out of the playoff picture should the Colts and Raiders win.

Conversely, a win and they are 7-4 and suddenly in great shape going into the bye as AFC West leaders with the Raiders coming into Arrowhead.

Huge, huge game.

— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) November 15, 2019

It’s not the best solution, but KC might be able to again outscore their problems on defense like they did a year ago. It might be the only option.

Chargers have Defense, Run Game to Compete

For all the stats available and new age philosophies on offense, it’s an old-school method that topples the Chiefs: a team with a good defense and a strong running game. Los Angeles, despite their record, possesses both.

https://twitter.com/ChargerTalkLine/status/1189626436505616384

The Chargers are sixth in the NFL in scoring defense, limiting their opponents to just 19.4 points a contest and they’re tied for fifth in the league in yards allowed per game, surrendering a paltry 318.3 yards a contest. It’s no wonder they’re giving bettors a nice consistent wager to the under, where they’re 7-3 on the season.

https://twitter.com/SamKweonWriter/status/1196281097811742721

On offense, Philip Rivers looked more game manager than game-deciding pivot last time out, throwing three ugly interceptions in a loss to the Raiders on Thursday night. But he should be doing a ton of handing off to his excellent running back duo of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler.

Melvin Gordon will not be denied a TD 💪🏾 pic.twitter.com/o1ABlq5MHS

— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) October 27, 2019

Kansas City’s defense surrendered a whopping 225 yards on the ground to the Titans. Derrick Henry ran wild, finishing with 188 yards rushing and and two TD’s. Gordon has averaged 21 totes a contest in his last two games, and he’ll be a key to chewing up clock, putting up points, and keeping Mahomes off the field.

What’s the Best Bet?

Maybe the sharps are on to something: since going 3-0 ATS to start the year, Kansas City’s has gone 2-5 ATS since. While Los Angeles was able to cover just one of their first seven spreads, they have covered the spread in two of their last three contests.

After this season, #chiefs have to decide if Andy Reid should be their head coach.

19’ was supposed to be “all-in” year.

Instead, they’re going to struggle to win a horrific division.

I’m over the excuses. Absolutely done with the excuses for bad losses.

— VP of pizza consumption (@Jtfawver) November 10, 2019

Despite a stinging loss last week, it’s hard to go against Andy Reid in the AFC West, and with Mahomes as his triggerman. Reid is 35-14 against AFC West, including a dominating 23-2 over the last 25 games. He’s also 11-4 against the Chargers, and KC has won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, going 7-3 ATS in that span.

And the Chiefs also pretty tough coming off an L, sporting a sparkling 5-1 ATS mark after losing the previous week.

They may not be the demolition crew from a year ago, but Mahomes and company should be good enough to take care of business in Mexico City. Not feeling the spread? While the Chiefs are 7-3 on the OVER this year, that 53-point line is favorable to the Chargers and their dominance on the UNDER.

The pick: Chiefs -5 (-110) and UNDER 53.0 (-110)