Upcoming Match-ups

Chiefs Open as 8.5 Point Favorites Over Texans in Week 6

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 12:26 PM PDT

Deshaun Watson passing from the pocket
Will Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans be able to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Photo by KA Sports Photos (flickr)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs open as 8.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans in Week 6 of the NFL schedule
  • The total has gone over in five of the last seven Chiefs-Texans games
  • Kansas City is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Houston

The last time the Houston Texans faced the Kansas City Chiefs, Houston was also coming into the game off a monstrous victory.

There were a lot of points scored by both teams. And it didn’t end well for the Texans.

Odds are projecting a similar outcome this time around. The sportsbook had established the Chiefs as 8.5-point favorites in Sunday’s game at Arrowhead Stadium in the Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs odds & stats. However, bettors have taken an early liking to Deshaun Watson and the Texans as that number has now come down to -7.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Houston Texans n/a +7 (-129) Over 55.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs n/a -7 (+107) Under 55.5 (-110)

*Odds taken 10/06/19

The total on the game is set at 56 points.

Texans Piling It On

When the Texans give quarterback Deshaun Watson time to make plays, magical things can happen.

Only Andy Dalton (20) of the Cincinnati Bengals and Kyler Murray (20) of the Arizona Cardinals have been sacked more this season than Watson, who’s gone down in the backfield 18 times. In Sunday’s 53-32 shootout victory over the Atlanta Falcons, Watson wasn’t sacked once.

Given the kind of time in the pocket he’s not normally afforded, Watson made hay. He passed for 426 yards and five touchdowns.

The yardage number was a career high and just the second time Watson has topped the 400-yard barrier. He passed for 402 yards against the Seattle Seahawks in 2017.

It’s the third straight season he’s posted a five-TD pass game, though. Watson threw five scoring aerials in a win last season over the Miami Dolphins. In 2017, he threw for five TDs in the Texans’ previous meeting with the Chiefs.

Mahomes vs Watson

The hype machine will be touting this matchup of elite, young QBs and with good reason. It’s the first meeting between Watson and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, stars who were selected two picks part in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Watson went 12th overall to the Texans. Houston traded up from the 25th pick to get him. Mahomes was selected 10th overall by the Chiefs. Kansas City moved up from 27th to get him.

When these two teams previously met in 2017, Mahomes was on the bench, watching Alex Smith under center for KC. But Watson had himself a day.

Much like this time, he came into that game off a spectacular performance. Watson passed for four TDs in a 57-14 rout of the Tennessee Titans.

The 2017 Chiefs were 4-0 when they met the Texans in Week 5. Watson passed for 261 yards and five TDs but KC won an offensive slugfest 42-34.

Reigning NFL MVP Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (1,831). Watson (115.9) and Mahomes (114.9) are 2-3 in passer rating.

Between them, Watson (11) and Mahomes (11) have accounted for 22 TD passes and have only been picked off once. Mahomes (17 games) is the fastest QB to reach 50 TD passes in the Super Bowl era. Watson (26 games) is fourth.

Chiefs, Texans Will Pile up Points

Five of the last eight Houston-Kansas City games have gone over. The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL in points per game (29.6). The Texans are 10th (26.2 ppg).

KC has struggled the past two weeks against the run-oriented offenses of the Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs will mesh much better with Houston’s pass-first mentality.

There’s also speculation that Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (clavicle) could see his first action of the season in this game. Hill caught 12 TD passes last season.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-7), over 56 (-110)

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