Colts Favored to Win AFC South After Beating Texans in Week 7; Where’s the Value?
- The Indianapolis Colts are the +125 chalk to win the AFC South after Sunday’s 30-23 win over the Houston Texans
- The Texans were the odds-on -120 choice to win the division entering Sunday’s game
- The Texans (five) and Colts (four) have won nine of the last 10 AFC South titles
The AFC South suddenly belongs again to the Indianapolis Colts. Up until Sunday, it looked to be the property of the Houston Texans.
Who will own the division next week? That’s anybody’s guess.
A 30-23 home-field victory by the Colts over the Texans moved 4-2 Indy into the driver’s seat ahead of 4-3 Houston.
Sportsbooks now list the Colts as the +125 favorites to take the title in the NFL divisional odds.
2019-20 AFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | +125 |
| Houston Texans | +150 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +550 |
| Tennessee Titans | +800 |
*Odds taken on 10/21/19.
The sportsbook listed the Texans as the -120 chalk to wear the AFC South crown entering Sunday’s showdown.
Deep in the Minds of Texans?
Sunday’s win was the third straight verdict by the Colts over the Texans. It was also the fifth in six meetings betweeen Houston and Indy that’s gone the way of the Colts. Indianapolis has come away with the victory on its last three trips to Houston. The Colts have won 11 of their last 15 against the Texans.
#Colts are now in first place in the AFC South.
Jacoby Brissett today: 26/39, 326 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs pic.twitter.com/MSxFQ5lWoN
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 20, 2019
After watching the Colts grind down the Kansas City Chiefs with a steady diet of running back Marlon Mack and Indy’s ground game, the Texans put eight men in the box to halt the run. They were daring Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett to beat them through the air.
Jacoby Brissett: 325 yards, 8.6 Y/A, 4 TD, 0 INT
Andrew Luck had one career game with 300+ yards, 8.5+ Y/A, 4+ TD, 0 INT.
Luck had 86 starts. Today is Brissett's 21st start with the Colts.
— Field Gulls (@FieldGulls) October 20, 2019
Brissett took them up on that dare. The man slated to be Indy’s backup QB until the shock preseason retirement of All-Pro Andrew Luck passed for 326 yards and four touchdowns.
Both were career highs.
The Colts defense stymied Houston’s top-10 running game, and chased Texans QB and NFL MVP contender Deshaun Watson all over the field.
Schedule Favors Colts
Perhaps the best thing that happened to Indianapolis last season was a 37-34 home-field overtime loss to the Texans in Week 4. That outcome was the difference-maker in Houston winning the AFC South and Indy finishing second.
Poor #Texans LB'er Zach Cunningham gets 🔨🥞 by @BigQ56 , with basically 1 hand! pic.twitter.com/RN7P6XeyOP
— Lawrence Owen (@Colts_Law) October 20, 2019
As a second-place finisher, the Colts got 2019 schedule matchups with other AFC divisional runners-up, a group that includes the 0-6 Miami Dolphins and the 2-4 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Starting from today and through December 1st, the Colts will play five games and the Texans six. One of those games is a November 21st rematch at Houston.
Colts beat the Texans who beat the Chiefs who beat the Raiders who beat the Colts who beat the Chiefs who beat the Broncos who beat the Chargers who beat the Colts who beat the Titans who beat the Browns who beat the Ravens who beat the Dolphins. So, 2nd best AFC team 😂😂
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) October 21, 2019
The other five teams on Houston’s slate during this span own a combined .654 winning percentage (17-9). That’s the price a team pays in the NFL’s balanced schedule scheme for finishing in first place.
The remaining four teams that stack up against Indianapolis over the same time frame show a combined .303 winning percentage (10-23).
Texans Going South?
What Sunday’s game ultimately came down to was that the Colts made more plays than the Texans did.
When Houston took away the option of All-Pro wideout TY Hilton from Brissett’s arsenal, he went to Zach Pascal for 106 yards and two TD catches.
#colts WR Zach Pascal, who had 106 yards and 2 TDS, told me they were more wide open on their crossing routes today vs the Texans than they were during the week vs the Colts scout team defense. “I got to be honest. We were.”
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) October 20, 2019
Indy took advantage of Houston’s sub-standard offensive line to pressure Watson all game. His numbers in three games against Indy are a pedestrian 0-3, with three touchdowns passes, three interceptions and 11 sacks.
Coming off their biggest win of the season at KC, and entering their biggest game of the season, the Texans fell flat. Watson threw two fourth-quarter interceptions. Houston was flagged 10 times for 54 yards in penalties.
Luck retires and the Texans still can’t beat the Colts 😭
— 🐐 (@ShowTimePls) October 20, 2019
In Watson, receiver DeAndre Hopkins and defensive tackle JJ Watt, Houston beats the Colts in terms of superstars.
The Texans just can’t beat Indy on the field.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+125)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
