Colts vs Broncos: Thursday Night Football Full Betting Preview

Colts vs Broncos Game Preview

Just a few seasons ago, a Broncos/Colts tilt from Lucas Oil Stadium in primetime would be considered appointment viewing.

Things done changed.

Consider it now disappointment viewing – perhaps the perfect ending to another dismal Thursday night slate, known more for poor matchups, lacklustre performances, and as a prime destination to find season-ending injuries. Who knew that four days off between games would be a hazard? (You know, besides everybody?)

The Broncos (4-9) and Colts (3-10) are great examples of how a lack of quality quarterbacking play leaves the rest of your roster exposed.

Denver’s carousel of quarterbacks started at Trevor Simien and then made necessary but unfortunate stops at Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. After zero production at the pivot position since about Week 4, the team’s vaunted defence was left to fend for itself. While operating at a high-but-not-all-world level, Von Miller and company could only hold the fort for so long.

The end result? Denver’s 3-1 start was literally stomped out and replaced with a franchise-worst eight-game losing skid.

Bettors felt the sting of rolling with the Broncos as well. During the eight-game skid, the Broncos were favoured three times (including by 13.5 against the New York freaking Giants), and healthy underdogs five other times, and they failed to cover each time.

Finally, after an offensive coordinator switch, a return to Siemian, who played his best game since Week 2, and help from the scheduling gods in a matchup with the Jets, the home underdog (+1) Broncos finally broke through with a 23-0 shutout win last Sunday.

Still, in a weak division that was theirs for the taking, Denver now brings up the rear, their season left to development and evaluation. That’s gotta hurt.

Yet, all of the above notwithstanding, Denver is favored by a field goal on the road against the Colts. How bad is it in Indy?

While the Colts have been competitive most weeks, they have let numerous fourth-quarter leads slip away and sit last in the still sub-par AFC South. The best thing they have to show for this season is a decent draft class (which, anyone in Indianapolis will tell you is not a sure thing) and a trade that sent the wildly disappointing Phillip Dorsett to New England for QB Jacoby Brissett.

Consider those massive successes because, since lucking into consensus no. 1 pick Andrew Luck in 2012, management has failed to add any real game-changers through the draft. With Luck’s body now breaking down thank to years of poor offensive line play, which culminated in a shoulder injury, surgery and rehab that could seriously impact his entire career, finding another serviceable QB was a must.

When Week 1 starter Scott Tolzien lit himself on fire against the Rams, Brissett was immediately thrust into the starting role, which he has held since Week 2. The results have been what you’d expect for a franchise that relied on Luck to be viable contenders in the AFC: shaky and unpredictable. But Brissett has shown enough to be considered a suitable fill-in if Luck’s rehab goes further awry or a valuable trade chip if Luck makes it back to 100%.

In reality, losing close games and seeing young players develop is probably in the team’s best long-term interests. A high draft pick could result in juicy trade offers from QB-needy teams, which would allow the Colts the chance to quickly rebuild an aging roster around a hopefully healthy Luck heading into 2018.

On the betting side, the Colts have been underdogs in every game this year except one, when they hosted the hapless 49ers and covered as 1.5-point favorites at home. If that’s not telling enough, here’s a take-your-leather-glove-off-and-slap-me-in-the-face moment: they were underdogs against the Browns in Week 3. At home.

Yet, as mentioned, they’ve been competitive most weeks, and that’s led to a decent 6-7 record against the spread.

They head into Week 15 trending in the wrong direction. After covering in three straight (at Cincy, at Houston, vs Pittsburgh), they proceeded to lose three in a row ATS (vs Tennessee, at Jacksonville, at Buffalo).

THE MATCHUP

Kudos to the Broncos for maintaining a top 10 defensive DVOA rating (currently seventh). The numbers and the eye test, however, will tell you this is not the vaunted Denver D of old.

They are 24th in points allowed, despite making big strides against the run, the one area where they had been vulnerable in years past. Every other aspect of the defense has taken a step back.

While it’s likely that T.Y. Hilton should be blanketed again with a matchup against All-Pro corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, it’s just not as safe a bet for the Broncos as in past seasons. And even if Hilton is kept in check, Indy may be able to exploit the soft underbelly of Denver’s pass coverage inside the hashmarks. Cue Jack Doyle and the combo of Marlon Mack and Frank Gore (assuming he’s a go). Denver’s linebackers and safeties have been poor in coverage. Finding those 1-on-1s should be Brissett’s priority.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos, who have been offensively challenged to say the least, at least found a way to put up points and be effective last week, and that was directly linked to Demaryius Thomas getting reacquainted to the passing game and the end zone. If the Colts D (30th in the league in points allowed) stays to form, that will turn into a two-week trend, as long as Siemian doesn’t shoot himself in the foot. If “Good Trevor” shows up, this team can, in theory, effectively move the ball down the field, but it needs a successful passing attack to help a perennially challenged run game.

If “Bad Trevor” shows up, expect Denver to be playing from behind under a hail of gruesome turnovers.

Team Injury Reports

BRONCOS

• NT Domata Peko (left MCL): Questionable
• S Justin Simmons (ankle): Questionable
• S Jamal Carter (shoulder): Questionable
• QB Paxton Lynch (ankle): Questionable

COLTS

• RB Frank Gore (hand): Questionable
• QB Jacoby Brissett (quad): Questionable
• CB Nate Hairston (concussion): Out
• C Ryan Kelly (concussion): Out
• CB Rashaan Melvin (hand): Out
• WR Donte Moncrief (ankle): Out

Colts vs Broncos Betting Opportunities

Betting the Colts vs Broncos Moneyline

BEST BRONCOS MONEYLINE: -140

BEST COLTS MONEYLINE: +126 

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: Broncos (-140)
You’re basically accepting that Good Trevor shows up. This would allow Denver’s still-talented roster to outperform the undermanned and less-talented Colts. This is also a nod to Denver’s D bouncing back against the Jets and proving that it remains among the upper-echelon in the NFL.

Betting the Colts vs Broncos Against the Spread

BEST BRONCOS SPREAD: -2.5

BEST COLTS SPREAD: +3 

EXPERT AGAINST-THE-SPREAD ADVICE: Broncos (-2.5)
Granted it was in about a foot of snow, but the Colts’ offense looked unremarkable last week until it was forced into scramble mode to try and come back against the Bills. More concerning is the fact that the team decided to stay conservative. The season is over, the field conditions basically turned that game into a toss-up, and the Colts did nothing to tilt the tide in their favour. Don’t expect the game plan to open up any further against Denver. Once again, the more likely scenario is that Good Trevor shows up, Denver puts up points early, and Von Miller wreaks havoc the rest of the evening against an Indy offensive line missing Ryan Kelly.

Colts vs Broncos Totals Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 40.5 

BEST UNDER ODDS: 40.5

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: under 40.5

While they each give up a bevy of points per game, trusting these offenses on a short week is terrifying. Expect Thomas and Siemian to hook up frequently, the Denver D to once again be stout, and another coach to out-maneuver the forever maneuvrable Chuck Pagano. Even if that coach is Vance Joseph.