Cowboys Among Top 10 Super Bowl 53 Contenders After Week 11
- The Dallas Cowboys have shot up the Super Bowl 53 futures the last two weeks
- They are now favored to win the NFC East despite sitting a game behind Washington
- Is there value betting on Dallas to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta this season?
Two weeks ago, the Dallas Cowboys (5-5) were left for dead. They had fallen to 3-5 after dropping a disappointing home game to Tennessee in prime-time (28-14). But a two-game road win streak has drastically altered their outlook. If they beat Washington — which is now without starting QB Alex Smith — on Thanksgiving, they will move into a tie for first in the NFC East.
The Cowboys’ Super Bowl 53 odds have improved along with their record. As our Super Bowl 53 Odds Tracker shows, Big D was at a distant +11900 after losing to Tennessee, behind both Washington and Philadelphia. Now they’re at +4400, which is not only best in the East, but also top ten in the NFL.
One sportsbooks is particularly high on Dallas’ chances, shortening their odds to +4000 after a solid 22-19 road win over Atlanta in Week 11.
Super Bowl 53 Odds after Week 11
| Team | Record | Odds (Nov. 20) |
|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | 10-1 | +325 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9-1 | +325 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9-2 | +550 |
| New England Patriots | 7-3 | +650 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-2-1 | +900 |
| Chicago Bears | 7-3 | +1500 |
| LA Chargers | 7-3 | +1500 |
| Houston Texans | 7-3 | +2000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5-4-1 | +2200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5-5 | +4000 |
Are the Cowboys Good Value?
Dallas’ +4000 odds carry an implied probability of 2.4%. If we played the season 100 times from here, would Dallas win the Super Bowl three times? If so, there’s value on the Cowboys at +4000. If not, it’s a bad bet.
Unfortunately for Dallas fans, the math says to stay away.
The best case regular-season scenario is that Dallas wins the division and hosts a game on Wild Card weekend. (They’re not catching the Saints or Rams and getting a bye.)
Vikings loss means #Panthers hold on to top NFC Wild Card spot. Seahawks game will have big implications. pic.twitter.com/RmWOu6J6la
— Nick Carboni (@NickCarboniWCNC) November 19, 2018
If they win that game, they would then (in all likelihood) have to beat both the Saints and Rams just to advance to the Super Bowl.
Dallas would probably be a short favorite at home against Carolina, Seattle, or Minnesota in the Wild Card round. Let’s call it Dallas -3. General consensus is that 3-point favorites win about 60% of the time.
| Point Spread | Approximate Chance to Win |
|---|---|
| PK | 50% |
| +1.0 | 47% |
| +1.5 | 45% |
| +2.0 | 43% |
| +2.5 | 41.5% |
| +3.0 | 40% |
| +3.5 | 38% |
| +4.0 | 36% |
| +4.5 | 34.5% |
| +5.0 | 33% |
| +5.5 | 31% |
| +6.0 | 29% |
| +6.5 | 27.5% |
| +7.0 | 26% |
In the Divisional Playoffs, the Cowboys would be at least touchdown underdogs against either the Rams or Saints (and that’s being generous). General consensus is that 7-point underdogs win about 25-26% of the time.
They would be looking at a similar scenario in the NFC Championship Game unless, say, the Bears upset the Saints/Rams. Let’s again be generous to the Boys and call it Dallas +6 in the NFC title game, which gives them a 29-30% chance to win.
If they get through the NFC gauntlet, the AFC champ would obviously await in the Super Bowl. Assuming either the Chiefs, Patriots, or Steelers emerge from the AFC, the Cowboys would be an underdog for the third straight game.
In keeping with our generosity to Dallas, we’ll set the Super Bowl line at Dallas +2.0 (~43% chance to win).
Ok, now it’s time for some math: 60% x 25% x 30% x 43% = … drumroll please … 1.9%!
Oy.
The moral of the story is that, by my math, if we play the season out 100 times, Dallas doesn’t win more than two Super Bowls.
And don’t forget, my math is based on a best-case where the Cowboys win the NFC East, which is far from a lock.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
