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Cowboys vs Buccaneers Odds, Lines, and Picks for Week 1

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Sep 8, 2021 · 1:34 PM PDT

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Week 1 odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) hands off the ball against the Houston Texans during the first half of an NFL preseason football game Saturday, Aug. 28, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Justin Rex)
  • The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 8.5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys in their NFL game on Thursday, September 9th, 2021
  • It’s the 16th time in 17 seasons that the defending Super Bowl champions have kicked off the season with a Thursday night game
  • Those Super Bowl champs are 14-2 straight up and 9-4-3 against the spread

The NFL tradition of having the reigning Super Bowl champions kick off the season with a Thursday Night Game will see Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.

Historically, these games have proven an ideal opportunity for the title holders to pick up where they left off. Overall, the defending Super Bowl champions are 14-2 straight up and 9-4-3 against the spread in these curtain raisers.

Oddsmakers have established the Buccaneers as more than a touchdown favorite over the Cowboys. Dallas is getting 8.5 points. Last season, the Cowboys were 8.5-point underdogs three times. They were 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in those games.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Dallas Cowboys +310 +8.5 (-114) O 51.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -390 -8.5 (-105) U 51.5 (-105)

Odds as of September 7th at FanDuel

Thursday’s game is slated for an 8:20 PM EST kickoff at Raymond James Stadium. Rain is in the forecast, along with 11 mph wind and a temperature of 87 degrees. NBC is carrying the broadcast.

Line Movement

The line on this game opened at Tampa Bay -6.5. It increased to Bucs -7 and continued to climb to -8.5, where it currently resides.

Of against the spread bets placed on the game, 88% are on the Buccaneers. The moneyline splits also show that 88% of the bets are on the Buccaneers at -390. As well, 88% of the public bets are on the over of 51.5 points. However, just 52% of all money wagered on this game is backing Tampa Bay.

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Brady’s Bunch

Overall, Tampa Bay quarterback Brady excels when playing on Thursday. He’s 12-3 in his career. Brady has thrown for 29 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. His Thursday completion percentage is 65.4, and his passer rating is 104.1.

However, he’s not fared as well in Thursday openers at the helm of the defending Super Bowl champs. In that scenario, Brady is 3-1 SU but just 1-1-2 ATS.

Cowboys QB Prescott is 5-3 on Thursdays. He shows a passer rating of 96.9 with 10 TD passes and three interceptions. Prescott has been sacked 24 times in Thursday games.

Injury Report

The key ailment in the game might be flying under the radar in the case of public bettors. Cowboys right guard Zach Martin (COVID-19) is out. He’s arguably the second-most important player in the Dallas offense.

The Cowboys run game follows Martin’s lead. If he’s out, that impacts Ezekiel Elliott’s ability to carry the rock. Suddenly, Prescott, returning from a season-ending compound right ankle fracture and dislocation, might have to win Dallas the game.

The Cowboys are also without starting fullback Sewo Olonilua. He’s on IR with a neck injury.

For the Buccaneers, safety Jordan Whitehead (hamstring) is out.

Trendspotting

In terms of head-to-head records, Dallas has won the last two meetings and seven of the past eight games against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys are 3-3 SU in six games at Tampa Bay. But the two teams haven’t met on the football field since 2018.

The total has gone under in five of the six Dallas at Tampa Bay games and in each of the past five Dallas-Tampa Bay games. Overall, though, the total has gone over in five of the last seven games played by Dallas. The Cowboys are 2-9 SU in their last 11 road games.

Tampa Bay is 8-0 SU in the last eight games and 5-1 ATS in the past six games. The Bucs have won seven straight against NFC opponents.

The Cowboys were even worse last season against the spread (5-11) than they were straight up (6-10). That was including a dismal 2-6 ATS road record.

Tampa Bay was just 9-7 ATS during regular-season play in 2020. However, the Bucs were a stellar 3-1 ATS during the postseason. That was highlighted by three straight outright wins as a betting underdog.

Betting on the Bucs was a rewarding experience last season. Wagering on Tampa Bay to cover the spread in each of the club’s last 10 games would have added an extra 39.1% to a bettor’s bankroll.

Pick: Tampa Bay -8.5 (-105), 1 unit

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