Daniel Jones’ NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Improve from 33-1 to 12-1 After Promising Preseason

• Daniel Jones was 29-of-34 for 416 yards, two TDs, and no INTs in the preseason
• Jones will start the season on the bench behind Eli Manning, though
• It’s tough to expect Jones to pick up the stats necessary to win OROY since he’s not playing

The New York Giants were heavily criticized for drafting Daniel Jones with the sixth pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. But after a strong preseason, the doubters have gotten quiet.

Taking a look at the 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, Jones’ number has shortened from +3300 to +1800. Is he worth a bet?

 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

*Odds taken 09/05/19 .

Jones Impresses In Preseason

There were a lot of concerns surrounding Jones and how he’d play in the NFL but in our first sneak-peek, he passed the test with flying colors. He finished the exhibition season going 29-of-34 (85%) for 416 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a sterling 137.3 passer rating. He did have a couple of fumbles, though.

Jones was on-point throughout, which has opened the door for him to get starts this season. Originally, the conversation was focused around him essentially sitting out for a season and learning behind Eli Manning. Now the door is wide open for Jones to get starts if Manning struggles.

Manning Also Looked Good In Preseason

One interesting variable to betting this prop is that Manning actually looked good in preseason action too. He played far less but still finished nine-of-16 for 86 yards, a touchdown and no picks. He did nothing to lose the job, so that’s why he’s heading into the season as the starter.

So what does that tell us? Is it possible that the Giants offense – or offensive line – is improved and both quarterbacks made good decisions behind it? Is it possible the cast around them is better? Is it possible it’s just merely preseason action that we witnessed, so we shouldn’t put faith in anything we saw?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQd4xfpgOjo

At this point, we don’t know a ton. Until the live action gets underway, we’re mostly speculating.

Giants Seem To Have A Plan

My biggest issue with betting Jones is that the Giants seem to have a plan for him. They were heavily criticized for drafting him early and were prepared for it. They know that if Jones doesn’t play this year, they’ll get criticized again. However, their plan all along has been to let Jones come along slowly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hifS0PqERX4

If they know that they aren’t going to be competitive this season and have this plan in mind, we might not see Jones for a while. That will severely hamper his chances of winning or even competing for this award.

What’s The Best Bet?

It’s tough to bet Jones in this spot despite his strong preseason. He doesn’t have a clear path to in-game action and we don’t know how good he really is.

Did he look good in exhibition games? Absolutely. Will he get an opportunity in-season and play just as admirably? It doesn’t look like it.

And even if he gets into the lineup in Week 4 or 5, he’s going to be way behind the count in terms of piling up the stats necessary. Guys like Kyler Murray, Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery will have a big lead. I’d pass on Jones’ odds – even though the oddsmakers think he has a better chance to win it after a good preseason.