Daniel Jones Props for First Start in Week 3: Over/Under Passing Yards Set at 260.5
- The Giants announced that Daniel Jones will start Week 3 in Tampa Bay
- Taken sixth overall in April, he will make his first NFL start against the Buccaneers
- We examine some of the props surrounding Daniel Jones’ NFL debut
Well, it only took two weeks for Daniel Jones to replace Eli Manning.
On Tuesday, Pat Shurmur announced that Jones would get his first NFL start on Sunday against the Buccaneers. This, after Manning got the Giants off to an 0-2 start with mixed results.
We don’t know if this is it or not for Manning. But we’ll soon find out whether or not New York’s gamble at sixth overall is going to pay off.
Props for Daniel Jones’ Week 3 NFL Debut
| Prop | Line | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Completions | 24 | -120 | -120 |
| Total Pass Attempts | 37.5 | -120 | -120 |
| Total Passing Yards | 260.5 | -120 | -120 |
| Total TD Passes | 1.5 | +115 | -155 |
| Total Interceptions | 0.5 | -250 | +170 |
*Odds taken 09/17/2019
There’s lots of interesting numbers here for Jones, and the only information we have is from Week 1. He completed three of his four passes for 17 yards in mop-up duty against the Cowboys.
In the preseason, Jones was supremely efficient. He completed 85% of his passes, for 416 yards and two touchdowns.
But before we dig deeper, let’s look at the passing stats.
Giants Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense Passing Matchup Stats
| Week | Completions | Attempts | Yards | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG Week 1 (@ DAL) | 33 | 48 | 323 | 1 | 0 |
| NYG Week 2 (vs BUF) | 26 | 45 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
| NYG Averages | 29.5 | 46.5 | 286.5 | 1 | 1 |
| AVG Allowed by TB | 21 | 38.5 | 245 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
These make a lot of sense for Eli Manning. He’s a veteran quarterback, and you needed to see him throw, a lot, to be comfortable with this decision.
From the Bucs’ perspective, they faced a Carolina team in Week 2 very similar to the Giants. A limited QB, an elite running back, and a couple of useful weapons.
With that considered, here are some props we like for Daniel Jones.
Completions: Over 24
In the preseason, Jones was extremely accurate in his limited action. He missed just five passes.
Jones excelled in the short passing game. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones was 21/23 went it came to passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
"I say this earnestly. @nateburleson, I commend you for coming out this morning and saying you have egg on your face about Daniel Jones. The line of people doing that is short this month. It could be around a New York City block." – @PSchrags on the @Giants rookie pic.twitter.com/RwCnJyhwuX
— GMFB (@gmfb) August 23, 2019
The Giants have done something similar with Eli Manning this year. He’s 43/51 in the same area.
Tampa has done a good job at limiting yardage on the ground. Saquon Barkley should see a bump in catches to combat that. He’s averaged 3.5 through two games.
Darius Slayton on Daniel Jones: "He's really smart. He's a really accurate thrower of the ball. I think he's surprising a lot of people (on the outside) right now. I think he's going to continue to surprise a lot of people. He's a really talented quarterback." #Giants
— Pat Leonard (@PLeonardNYDN) August 23, 2019
With Sterling Shepard (likely) back too, expect the Giants to play to Daniel Jones’ strengths with multiple short options.
The Pick: Over 24 Completions (-120)
Passing Yards: Under 260.5
Returning to the passing charts, let’s look at the middle and deep portions of the field for Jones and Manning.
Manning’s biggest struggles have come targeting the middle of the field. He is 4/13 on passes of 10+ yards. He’s passed better to his right (5/6, 124 yards) than his left (4/7, 49 yards, 1 TD).
In the preseason, Jones had good results on passes of 20+ yards (7/7, 176 yards, 1 TD). His issues were between 10 and 20 yards, completing just one of four.
Daniel Jones with the nice deep ball ?
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/fSoG3SHIV9
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) August 17, 2019
August is vastly different than the regular season, so those issues likely haven’t fixed themselves. Expect the Giants to try a deep shot or two, but the offense will likely be fairly modest.
The Pick: Under 260.5 Yards (-120)
Touchdowns Passes: Over 1.5
This one is interesting, as it’s a place where we can find a little value.
It also forces us to consider the other quarterback.
Jameis Winston is averaging just 6.6 yards-per-attempt. While he was clean against Carolina, he threw three picks against the 49ers. Tampa is converting at 30.4% on third down, which is 23rd in the league. Ronald Jones is averaging 4.9 YPC, but he’s been out-touched 31-17 by Peyton Barber.
This is Jameis Winston's 17th career game with multiple interceptions, passing Blake Bortles for most in the league since Winston entered the NFL in 2015. pic.twitter.com/2jiXnz9E8w
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 8, 2019
Meanwhile, Bradley Pinion has the sixth-lowest net average on punts.
What does all that mean?
Short fields for the Giants. And with not a lot of ground to cover, a couple quick hitters or screens from Jones could result multiple TDs.
The Pick: Over 1.5 TD Passes (+115)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
