Despite Bye, Allen Becomes Favorite in Latest NFL MVP Odds

• Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals remained perfect following a 31-5 win over the Texans
• Despite being on bye, Josh Allen became the favorite for NFL MVP
• See the updated 2021 NFL MVP Odds following Week 7

While he hasn’t always been perfect, Kyler Murray’s record is. And that had been good enough to keep him atop the NFL MVP odds.

Murray and the Cardinals rolled over the Houston Texans on Sunday…eventually. The Cards fell behind 5-0, thanks in part to Murray taking a safety in the first quarter. 31 unanswered points later, and Murray added another three passing TDs to his MVP case. But that slow start cost him.

Despite not even playing this week, there is a new man alone atop the NFL MVP odds.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of October 25th from FanDuel

Whether he’s been alone, part of a three-way tie, or even a six-way tie, Kyler Murray had been at the top of the NFL MVP odds for weeks. But Murray’s performance in Week 8 did enough to pull him back slightly into a tight with Dak Prescott. Josh Allen takes over top sport for the time being.

The Bills come out of their bye with a favorable schedule too: vs Miami, at Jacksonville, at the Jets and vs the Colts.

Brady’s Bucs Keep Rolling

Tom Brady doesn’t care if you’re sick and tired of him. He hasn’t cared for years.

Most of the world laughs every time the 44-year old says he wants to play until 50. Father Time is undefeated and blah, blah, blah.

But now he’s the only man to ever throw 600 career TDs. And he’s impossible to ignore in the MVP race.

Notable Week 7 QB Performances

Brady has four games of four or more touchdowns this season. Sunday marked his lowest yardage output of 2021, but Tampa’s win over the Bears was a runaway from the start. Since throwing two interceptions against Dallas in Week 1, Brady has just one since. He’s got 17 TDs in that span and 21 overall.

Burrow’s name cracks the list after getting the better of Lamar Jackson. He’s been on the outside of the conversation, but he’s thrown at least two TDs in every game this year. The interceptions will ultimately hurt his value, but his name has intrigue.

Week 7 Completion Percentage Over Expected Leaders (Entering SNF)

Best
🔹 Derek Carr: +15.5%
🔹 Ryan Tannehill: +12.2%
🔹 Tua Tagovailoa: +11.9%

Worst
🔸 P.J. Walker: -40.5%
🔸 Patrick Mahomes: -8.9%
🔸 Lamar Jackson: -8.5%#StatThat

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 24, 2021

The curious freefall of Patrick Mahomes continues. With his afternoon cut short by a knee to the head, there wasn’t much to write home about against the Titans anyway. The 62.3 rating is the lowest of Mahomes’ career.

Stafford gets another chance to fatten up his numbers next week against the Texans. The lone blemish on his season so far is the head-to-head loss against Murray, which flipped their fortunes on the MVP table. After the Texans, the Rams get the Titans, 49ers and Packers, and then a matchup against the Jags.

Murray vs Rodgers Kicks off Week 8

Despite slipping from top spot, Murray’s duel with Aaron Rodgers highlights Week 8. He started slow against the Texans, but it didn’t matter. That can’t happen against the Packers.

#AZCardinals QB Kyler Murray is just the fourth QB in the Super Bowl era to post a 6-0 record, 1,700+ passing yards and a 70.0+ completion percentage through the first six games of a season.

— Mike Jurecki (@mikejurecki) October 21, 2021

Rodgers put up a three TD effort of his own on Sunday. Red-hot since a Week 1 embarrassment, Rodgers and Murray will kick-off Week 8 with a head-to-head matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Aaron Rodgers vs Kyler Murray: Week 7

If there’s one place where Murray’s MVP case has lacked, it’s been in the turnover department. Murray has thrown an interception in four of seven games so far and has five overall. Rodgers has just one since throwing two in Week 1.

Can’t wait for Rodgers vs Murray for the best Thursday Night Game of the season.

— Matthew Mihaleas (@MatthewMihaleas) October 24, 2021

Thursday night’s result will cost one of the QBs ground in the MVP odds race. Green Bay has the tougher remaining slate with the Chiefs, Vikings, Rams, Ravens and Browns looming. The Cards have the 49ers, a stumbling Panthers team, and a Seahawks team that may or may not have Russell Wilson their next three games.

Derrick Henry, QB Too

For weeks the fact that MVP is a QB award has hung in the air while Derrick Henry trucks his way through the NFL. So Henry, coming off back-to-back three TD weeks, took matters into his own hands, throwing a five yard score against the Chiefs.

Derrick Henry can now be MVP. He is a QB. #Titans

— Johnathan Boren (@JBOnBroad) October 24, 2021

Apparently that’s all he had to do. Despite not logging a rushing score and turning in his second-lowest yardage total of the year, Henry went from +8000 last week to +2500 this week. Just 131 yards away from 1,000 already, Henry continues to deserve attention at that big of a number.

For QBs, the choice right now is Brady or Prescott. Brady has slightly longer odds, but both have opponents that should give them a chance to pile up the numbers and wins. Prices are getting shorter as the weeks tick away, but both should inspire confidence.