Falcons vs Packers Props – MNF Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Week 4

• The Atlanta Falcons clash with the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football (Oct. 5th, 8:50 pm EST)
• Our MNF prop bets were 2-3 in Week 3 (2020 season: -4.66 units)
• Read below for analysis and our favorite Monday Night Football prop bets

Week 4 in the NFL culminates in what should be a high scoring affair between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football (Oct. 5th, 8:50 pm EST).

Monday night doubleheader per @AdamSchefter

🏈 Patriots vs. Chiefs 7:05
🏈 Falcons vs. Packers 8:50

Highest-graded QBs entering Wk4:
1. Aaron Rodgers – 95.6
3. Patrick Mahomes – 90.7 pic.twitter.com/bMjbTLSTxD

— PFF (@PFF) October 4, 2020

Both teams enter play averaging 30+ points per game, but while the Packers are 3-0, the Falcons have yet to win. As good as their offenses have been, their defenses have been equally as poor, meaning there should be several spots for prop bettors to take advantage of.

Falcons vs Packers Player Props

All Odds taken Oct. 5th at DraftKings

Green Bay is currently a 6.5-point favorite in the Falcons vs Packers odds, but will be without the services of both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.

Prop #1: Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Touchdowns

Green Bay started the week as the league leader in total offense and points per game, and Aaron Rodgers was Pro Football Focus’ highest graded QB through three games. Without potentially his top two receivers, Rodgers will be forced to rely on some lesser known names, but that didn’t deter him from ballin’ out last week.

Aaron Rodgers tosses three TDs as the Packers move to 3-0 🧀 pic.twitter.com/gCYa0vEsvO

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 28, 2020

The two-time MVP torched the New Orleans Saints for 283 yards and 3 TD, completing a pass to nine different teammates. Guys like Robert Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis caught touchdowns, and the Atlanta defense has been a punching bag this season.

TOUCHDOWN PACKERS!

Green Bay with a 2-score lead late in the 4th!

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/i1MjlXghsj

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 28, 2020

Coming into Week 3, The Falcons ranked last in points allowed and second last in total yards allowed. They’ve surrendered at least 30 points to all three of their opponents, and have given up 9 TD passes.

Rodgers has a strong history against Atlanta under Dan Quinn, racking up 1,072 passing yards and 11 TD in four career meetings.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+125), 1 unit

Prop #2: Todd Gurley Over 56.5 Rushing Yards

This year’s Todd Gurley isn’t the same the guy that scored 21 touchdowns in 2018, but he has shown flashes of his former self lately.

Now Todd Gurley with a TD pic.twitter.com/EAtBoN3R3d

— DawgPost (@Dawg_Post) September 27, 2020

Gurley has hit paydirt twice in three games, and is fresh off a season best 80 yards on the ground against the Chicago Bears. He’s rushed for at least 61 yards in back-to-back outings, and this Packers defense is very susceptible to the run. Green Bay is allowing 5.38 yards per carry in the early going, and just surrendered 122 rushing yards to the Saints last week.

Pick: Todd Gurley Over 56.5 rushing yards (-112), 1 unit

Falcons vs Packers Scoring Props

Prop #3: Aaron Jones Strikes First

Simply put, Aaron Jones is a touchdown machine. The fourth-year RB has found the end zone five times already through three games, after scoring 19 times in 2019.

Aaron Jones achieved a top speed of 20.66 miles per hour on this 75-yard touchdown run #HomeRunThreat🧀@Showtyme_33 pic.twitter.com/vRQy2TJKgU

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) September 27, 2020

The great thing about betting on Jones is that he’s a threat to score on the ground as well as through the air. Entering Week 3, Jones led all players in red zone targets (8), including four inside the 10-yard line.

Calvin Ridley is no stranger to the end zone himself, having caught four touchdowns already this season. Ridley leads the Falcons in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns, and has scored 21 times in just 32 career games.

Calvin Ridley this season:
🔴 90.2 PFF Grade (1st)
🔴 8 receptions gaining 15+ yards (T-1st)
🔴 4 red-zone receptions (1st) & 3 red-zone TDs (1st)pic.twitter.com/OYalSyMDK9

— PFF (@PFF) September 27, 2020

You’d think down in the red zone, the big body of Julio Jones would be Matt Ryan’s favorite target, but Ridley has 7 more TD than Julio over the last two plus seasons.

Picks: Aaron Jones to score 1st TD (+450), 0.5 units, Calvin Ridley to score anytime (+120), 1 unit