Lions vs Chiefs SGP Picks for Thursday Night Football
- Our Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay for the 2023 season opener tonight is live
- Will David Montgomery exceed 11.5 receiving yards? Will KC go over 29.5 points?
- Check out our +509 Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay picks below
We’ve waited seven months, and on Thursday the NFL is officially back and we’ve cooked up our top Lions vs Chiefs SGP for the game. The 2023 campaign kicks off with the defending champion Chiefs taking on the Lions, in a game that’s already been affected by injury news.
KC star tight end Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice on Tuesday putting his status for this game up in the air per the Lions vs Chiefs injury report. That’s caused a flurry of action in the spread and total markets, and is drastically affecting how we approach our Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay.
Lions vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| David Montgomery Over 11.5 Receiving Yards | -112 |
| Isiah Pacheco Over 51.5 Receiving Yards | -110 |
| KC Chiefs Moneyline | -225 |
| KC Chiefs Over 29.5 Points | -108 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +509 |
Kelce overs are a common wager in all NFL same game parlays involving KC, but with his name off the oddsboard other targets must be identified. The first for this Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay that pays +509 if it hits, is David Montgomery over 11.5 receiving yards.
Social media is ripe with takes that Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs is Austin Ekeler 2.0. What they’re not taking into account is that Montgomery is a very competent pass catcher as well.
Odds as of September 7 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on NFL action in Week 1.
David Montgomery Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Montgomery exceeded 11.5 receiving yards in 10 games last year, playing alongside Justin Fields who rarely checks the ball down. That number may not seem overly impressive, but his advanced receiving stats were.
David Montgomery quietly had a very efficient 2022 campaign👀
🤯#8 in Route Participation
👀#3 in Yards per Reception
🤲#3 in Catch Rate
✂️#9 in Juke Rate
💨#8 in Evaded TacklesNo @seth_diewold didn't tweet this pic.twitter.com/10Lhotd11K
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 5, 2023
The 26-year-old ranked eighth among NFL running backs in route participation and third in catch rate and yards per reception. Jared Goff and the Lions ranked 11th in RB targets in 2022, and plenty of looks should be heading Montgomery’s way with Detroit listed as 4.5-point underdogs in the Lions vs Chiefs picks.
Isiah Pacheco Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
If oddsmakers are correct and KC is playing from ahead, chances are they’ll try to lean a little bit more on Isiah Pacheco and the rushing attack. The public also thinks KC will be ahead as the majority of the public are siding with the Chiefs on the spread in the Lions vs Chiefs public betting trends.
The Chiefs offensive line is a top-five unit in almost every metric, and has a major advantage over Detroit’s D in the run game.
Isiah Pacheco 2022 Rushing Stats – Last 12 Games
| Opponent | Attempts | Rush Yds |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 15 | 76 |
| Bengals | 10 | 26 |
| Jaguars | 12 | 95 |
| Raiders | 8 | 64 |
| Broncos | 9 | 31 |
| Seahawks | 14 | 58 |
| Texans | 15 | 86 |
| Broncos | 13 | 70 |
| Bengals | 14 | 66 |
| Rams | 22 | 69 |
| Chargers | 15 | 107 |
| Jaguars | 16 | 82 |
Pacheco meanwhile, ended the season with the fifth most rushing yards over the final nine weeks of the 2022 regular season, then proceeded to rush for 197 yards on 37 carries during the Chiefs playoff run. His current rushing yards over/under sits at 51.5, which is a clear buy in the Lions vs Chiefs player props.
Chiefs Moneyline and Over 29.5 Team Total
We’ll finish our Lions vs Chiefs SGP with the KC moneyline coupled with over 29.5 points for Andy Reid’s squad. Mahomes is a perfect 5-0 in season openers in his career, posting truly incredible numbers.
He’s thrown for 1,542 yards in those contests, with a ridiculous 18-to-0 TD-to-INT rate. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in all five of those games, reaching 40+ on a pair of occasions.
Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 as a starting QB:
2022: 360 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs
2021: 337 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
2020: 211 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
2019: 378 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
2018: 256 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTsTotal stats: 1,542 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 0 INTs with a 136.9 passer… pic.twitter.com/HAelkVAJ8k
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 6, 2023
Obviously the potential loss or limitation of Kelce hurts, but it’s important to note KC has had success in the past without him. The Chiefs are 12-6 all-time in games their star tight end has missed, most recently hanging 36 points on the Steelers in a blowout win on Boxing Day of 2021.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
