Lions Listed as 7-Point Underdogs vs Cowboys in Week 11 After Stafford Ruled Out
- Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against Dallas
- Stafford has broken bones in his back
- The Cowboys, who opened as the three-point favorites, are now seven-point chalk
The Detroit Lions aren’t taking any chances this week – either with the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford or with raising the ire of the NFL.
The Lions officially confirmed Friday that Matthew Stafford, who has broken bones in his back, is out for Sunday’s home game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Last Sunday, Stafford was a surprise scratch on game day as the Lions faced the Chicago Bears. The NFL is investigating whether the Lions broke league rules by lying about Stafford’s health and ability to play.
Stafford hadn’t practiced all week, and that fact, plus the confirmation that he’s out, saw the point spread move significantly in favor of the Cowboys. Sportsbooks currently list Dallas as a seven-point road favorite over Detroit.
Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | -300 | -7 (+100) | Over 47.0 (-110) |
| Detroit Lions | +250 | +7 (-120) | Under 47.0 (-110) |
Odds taken Nov. 15.
The Cowboys opened as three-point chalk.
Stafford Absence Changes Everything
Lions head coach Matt Patricia stated Friday that he could see no scenario in which Stafford might see action on Sunday. Patricia also admitted that all three phases of the team’s gameplan – offense, defense and special teams – must be approached differently with Jeff Driskel at quarterback in place of Stafford.
Matt Patricia says he does not anticipate QB Matthew Stafford playing this weekend.
— Tori Petry (@sportstori) November 15, 2019
Last week, Driskel passed for a career-high 269 yards in a 20-13 loss to the Bears at Soldier Field. An element he certainly brings under center that Stafford doesn’t possess is his elusiveness. Driskel was actually Detroit’s leading rusher against the Bears with five carries for 37 yards.
Many of the plays the Lions ran last week were designed roll outs to take advantage of Driskel’s foot speed. The Cowboys haven’t faced a scrambling QB this season. Driskel’s presence offers a different look from Stafford’s traditional drop-back style.
Lions QB Matthew Stafford ruled out (back) for Week 11 vs. Cowboys. pic.twitter.com/phpZVKXScH
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2019
On the other hand, the Cowboys had all week to prepare a defensive plan to neutralize Driskel’s strengths. The Bears didn’t know Driskel would be starting until Sunday morning.
Lions Roar Against Cowboys
Dallas has won three straight from the Lions but all three of those games were played in BIg D. Detroit is 8-4 straight up against the Cowboys in the last 12 games in Detroit.
holy moly, Jeff Driskel pic.twitter.com/Cc4BrBl0us
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 10, 2019
Stafford is 2-2 in his career against Dallas. Driskel, 1-5 in his NFL career as a starter, has never faced the Cowboys.
Jeff Driskel was the Lions leading rusher this week. Can the Cowboys shut down Jeff Driskel!?!?
— Jeff Cavanaugh (@JC1053) November 12, 2019
Stafford’s 8.6 yards per completion is tied for third this season among NFL QBs with at least 100 pass attempts. Driskel (5.8 YPC) ranks 56th in the NFL, tied with Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky.
Which Trends Do You Believe?
Giving more points to a road favorite is generally not considered a wise betting strategy. Dallas +3 at Detroit seemed a safe bet, especially with Stafford sidelined. Dallas +7 is an entirely different scenario.
If anything, the official word of Stafford’s absence should drive even more late money on Dallas and further widen the point spread.
Practice on Friday — Rick Wagner out, Da’Shawn Hand out, Stafford be out there not doing much, but he is out there.
"Don’t anticipate him (Stafford) playing this weekend." — Patricia
— Benjamin Raven (@BenjaminSRaven) November 15, 2019
The Lions are 4-3 against the spread in their last seven games as a home underdog. On the other hand, the Cowboys are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite.
Detroit is a dismal 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. The Lions are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in November.
"I'm taking the Cowboys 24-20. The Lions have lost the last 5 of 6. The Cowboys are a more talented ball club. The Lions will keep it close, but they're not winning this game." — @ShannonSharpe pic.twitter.com/xPHCbeIKX0
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) November 15, 2019
Then again, Dallas is abysmal when facing NFL North opposition. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against NFC North teams. Dallas hasn’t covered versus an NFC north club since 2016.
The Cowboys are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games when laying seven or more points.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
