Mahomes’ Chiefs Listed as 1.5-Point Favorites Over Rodgers’ Packers in Week 9
- The Kansas City Chiefs (4-4) opened as 1.5-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers (7-1) in Week 9 (Nov. 7th, 4:25 pm ET)
- Green Bay snapped Arizona’s unbeaten streak en route to its seventh straight win in Week 8, while Kansas City squeaked by the New York Giants 20-17 on MNF
- Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff
For the first time in their careers, Aaron Rodgers, the reigning MVP, and Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 MVP will square off in Week 9 (Sunday, November 7th). The two star QB’s were set to clash two seasons ago, but a dislocated kneecap kept Mahomes out of action.
Rodgers and the Pack head to KC riding a seven-game winning streak, while Mahomes and the Chiefs are off to a disappointing 4-4 start.
Packers vs Chiefs Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | +104 | +1.5 (-110) | O 55.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -122 | -1.5 (-110) | U 55.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov. 1st at FanDuel.
Despite Kansas City’s recent struggles, the Chiefs opened up as a 1.5-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 55.5. Kickoff is set for 4:25 pm ET at GHEA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, a venue where KC has won just twice this season.
Chiefs Struggle Yet Again
Kansas City’s latest home victory came on Monday night, as they barely squeaked by the 2-6 New York Giants. The Chiefs’ turnover woes continued with two more giveaways, which gives them an NFL-worst 19 through eight games.
Mahomes’ 10th interception of the year 😅 (via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/vko1JajSx5
— Overtime (@overtime) November 2, 2021
For the second consecutive contest, Mahomes looked like an average QB. He threw for only 275 yards, and was picked off for the seventh straight game. Tyreek Hill led the offense with 12 catches for 94 yards and a score, but Mahomes’ other main target Travis Kelce, turned in one of his lowest outputs of the season.
Travis Kelce fumbles on just his second reception of the game 😳
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/XMf0n8Jn4U
— ESPN (@espn) November 2, 2021
Kelce caught just four of seven targets for 27 yards, and lost his first fumble of the season. KC averaged only 4.8 yards per play, and converted just 5-of-12 third down opportunities.
Defensively, the Chiefs turned in one of their best performances of the season, holding the Giants to 300 yards, but New York is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The Giants entered the week ranked 27th in offensive DVOA, and have now failed to score more than 20 points in five of eight outings.
https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1455331315763621891
Still, it’s a step in the right direction for a KC defense that entered the week ranked 31st in DVOA, and 28th in points allowed per game.
No Adams, No Problem
Green Bay meanwhile, is fresh off walking into Arizona and beating the previously undefeated Cardinals, despite missing a handful of its best players. Davante Adams was the biggest talent to sit out thanks to a positive COVID test, while the Packers were also down their number two and number three receivers as well.
The Green Bay #Packers have taken down the previously unbeaten Arizona #Cardinals, on a short week, on the road, without:
WR Davante Adams
WR Allen Lazard
WR MVS
LT David Bakhtiari
C Josh Myers
CB Jaire Alexander
CB Kevin King
LB Za’Darius SmithWow.
— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) October 29, 2021
In addition to the decimated wideout corps, All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander and All-Pro edge rusher Za’Darius Smith were all inactive, as was starting center Josh Meyers. To make matters worse, starting tight end Robert Tonyan suffered a torn ACL and is done for the season.
Davante Adams is not present at practice this morning. Still needs two consecutive negative COVID-19 tests with 24 hours in between.
Here’s who is practicing: Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (for the first time since Week 3), David Bakhtiari, Dennis Kelly, Kevin King.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 1, 2021
Adams still isn’t practicing but is expected back on Sunday, while Bakhtiari could make his season debut.
Despite that laundry list of injuries, Rodgers still found a way to steal a victory. Rodgers led the Packers on long, methodical drives, wearing down the Cards defense, while keeping his own fresh. Running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon were phenomenal racking up 110 and 78 total yards respectively, while Randall Cobb caught a pair of touchdowns.
We've seen this connection before: Aaron Rodgers ➡️ Randall Cobb 🎯
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/1fDv2WqmKo
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 29, 2021
Green Bay’s defense, which has been under fire all season, held the NFL’s fourth highest scoring offense to 334 yards, while forcing three turnovers.
The Packers are now 7-1 ATS this season, and 29-15 against the number since Matt LaFleur took over in 2019. That includes a 7-3 ATS record as a road underdog, with seven outright victories.
Line Headed in Green Bay’s Direction
Green Bay is already one of the most public backed teams and its sparkling ATS record is only going to draw more bettors towards them this week. While the Packers have been cashing ATS tickets left and right, the same cannot be said for KC.
#Chiefs are now 3-12 ATS in their last 15 regular season games as a favorite dating back to last year.
— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) November 2, 2021
The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS this season, and 3-12 against the number over their past 15 regular season games. They haven’t looked good in weeks, which is another reason why action is going to come pouring in on Green Bay. Expect the Packers to close as a favorite.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
