New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Odds and Best Bets for Week 14
- Buffalo is a massive 10 point home favorite in the Jets vs Bills odds in Week 14 action on Sunday
- Outdoor divisional games are 26-11-1 to the under this season
- Check out the complete Jets vs Bills odds below, in addition to injury news and a prediction
AFC rivals clash in Buffalo on Sunday in Week 14, as the Bills (9-3, 4-1 home) host the Jets (7-5, 4-2 away). Payback will surely be on the minds of Buffalo as they were upset by New York as double-digit favorites just over a month ago. Read on for an analysis of the Jets vs Bills.
Online sportsbooks are once again putting their faith in the Bills as double-digit chalk in the Week 14 NFL odds, and the public agreed early on.
Jets vs Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | +10 (-110) | +370 | O 43 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -10 (-110) | -460 | U 43 (-110) |
Odds as of December 9 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to bet on NFL Week 14.
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 ON NFL & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!
- FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 GUARANTEED!
- BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
GET UP TO $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS!
- BET365 SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS!
- CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
GET UP TO $1,000 BACK - ON CAESARS!
Buffalo opened up as 9-point home favorites, but that line has since been bet up to -10. At the current line, there’s been some buyback on the Jets, as 68% of the ATS tickets are on them. The game’s total opened up at 44 but has since been bet down to 43.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast is currently calling for nasty conditions, with below-freezing temperatures, snow, and 15 mph sustained winds.
Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
Following the loss to New York in Week 9, the Bills tripped up the next week against Minnesota as well. Since then, they’ve reeled off three straight wins, including an impressive primetime win at New England last week.
Buffalo has been stacking victories, but unlike at the start of the season, Josh Allen isn’t putting up video game numbers. Allen has thrown for 253 yards or less in his past three contests and managed just 205 yards in the loss versus the Jets. He’s got a pedestrian 6-to-5 TD-to-INT rate over his past five starts but has legged out 78+ rushing yards in three of those outings, in addition to three rushing TD.
Josh Allen is the first player in NFL history with three seasons of 25 Pass TD and 5 Rush TD. pic.twitter.com/bwGQWQflYh
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 2, 2022
Points will be tough to come by against New York, as the Jets boast one of the league’s top defenses. New York ranks fifth in total defense per DVOA, and checks in at number five against the pass as well. They picked off Allen twice in their Week 9 meeting while sacking him five times.
The main reason to be optimistic about a repeat performance for New York on Sunday is their ability to generate pressure without blitzing. The Jets rank fifth in pressure rate this season, despite blitzing at the NFL’s second-lowest clip.
Allen’s diminished production recently has led to more rushing output from Buffalo’s RBs. Devin Singletary has at least 13 carries in his past four games, finding the end zone four times.
On the injury front, the Bills’ star pass rusher Von Miller has been ruled out for the season. Both D-tackle Jordan Phillips and fullback Reggie Gilliam are out on Sunday while starting linebacker Matt Milano is questionable.
New York Jets Betting Analysis
New York enters play clinging to the final Wild Card berth in the AFC. They lost a heartbreaking 27-22 decision to the Vikings last week, despite outgaining Minnesota by 200 yards. The Jets had multiple series inside Minnesota territory in the final few minutes, but couldn’t find the end zone.
Braxton Berrios dropped a potential game-winning TD on 4th and goal 🤯 pic.twitter.com/slSdaAC7Qj
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 4, 2022
Nevertheless, the Mike White experiment continues in New York, and Jets players couldn’t be happier about it. Multiple teammates, including stud rookie receiver Garrett Wilson, have praised White’s play at every turn, wearing t-shirts with his face on them, and telling anyone who’ll listen how they can’t wait to go to battle with him.
To White’s credit, his play has been head and shoulders above Zach Wilson’s. White has topped 300 passing yards in both of his starts, while New York has exceeded 450 yards of offense in both of those outings.
If you want to poke a hole in his resume, however, it’s not hard to do. His two starts came against Chicago and Minnesota, two of the league’s 11 worst-scoring defenses. The Bears rank dead last on defense per DVOA, while the Vikings rank 18th.
Points will be tough to come by versus Buffalo. The Bills rank fourth in defensive DVOA, and seventh against the pass. They’re top-10 in both pressure rate and 20+ yard plays allowed and stymied White when they faced him last year – more on that later.
Injury-wise, starting RB Michael Carter is off the injury report and should return after a one-game absence. Starting corner D.J. Reed and starting safety Lamarcus Joyner are questionable, but expected to play.
Jets vs Bills Prediction
Most people would automatically assume a Josh Allen-led offense would be involved in a ton of high-scoring games. However, that is simply not the case. The Bills are 9-3 to the under this season, which is behind only the Buccaneers and Broncos for the highest percentage of a team’s games to fall short of the total.
New York and Buffalo’s first meeting produced only 37 points, and this game has an excellent chance to go under as well.
NFL Top-5 Ranked Defenses Per DVOA
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 |
| New York Jets | 5 |
The Bills average only 23 points per game against top-12 pass defenses. Against everyone else, that number balloons to over 30 ppg. Buffalo’s defense ended White’s starting reign last year, forcing four interceptions in a game White was benched.
Also adding fuel to the under are the trends. Unders in outdoor divisional games are 62-38-1 since the start of the last season, and 26-11-1 in 2022. In a matchup of two top-five defenses, with serious weather concerns, play the under.
Pick: Under 43 (-110), 1 unit
2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 8-7, +0.07 units
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
