Odds Are Against the NFL Changing Their Onside Kick Rules in 2020
- The NFL is again reviewing a number of rule recommendations to consider whether to make changes
- Onside kicks have been recovered just 10.4% of the time over the last two seasons
- Odds on if the league will follow the proposals of the AAF or Philadelphia Eagles can be found below
Although it’s unclear if the XFL is a league that’s here to stay, one thing that’s evident is they’ve introduced a number of interesting rules that the NFL might adopt – including the possibility of changing onside kick rules in 2020. Even though the XFL has introduced a unique method, the odds show the NFL is not likely to change its onside kick rules in 2020.
Odds NFL Makes Changes to Onside Kick Rules
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +325 |
| No | -550 |
Odds taken Mar. 11.
Onside Kicks Rendered Ineffective in 2019
One of the main reasons we’re talking about the potential changes to onside kicks is because after recent changes to NFL kickoffs, onside kicks were basically useless in 2019. Over the last two seasons, onside kicks have been recovered at a rate of 10.4%. That includes 2018, which was at 7.7% – the lowest rate ever noted since this dated was tracked.
The league is looking for teams to still have an opportunity – as slim as it might be – to have a shot late in games as it makes them more exciting. That’s why we’re once again discussing possible changes.
XFL’s Method, Team Proposals Push NFL to Make Changes
The XFL has made a number of changes to their rules but the onside kick is not one that is particularly foreign to NFL fans. The main difference is that for teams that wish to go for an onside kick, they have to notify the office before the play so that both teams are aware. There are no surprise onside kicks.
What’s really propelling the NFL to consider some changes has been a number of team proposals. Specifically, the Philadelphia Eagles have spearheaded changes to the onside kicks. They would like the league to look at fourth-and-15 options instead of having the traditional onside kick methods.
How this would play out is the scoring team has the option to “go for it” on a fourth-and-15 from their own 15-yard-line after a score. If they convert, they keep possession on a first-and-10 from their 30-yard-line or beyond. In other words, it removes the goofy kicks, the collisions and the special teams trickery out of the equation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA-y9sM8Wm4
The fourth-and-15 has been discussed before as the Alliance of American Football used a fourth-and-12 option. The math shows that converting these types of plays is just about the same (in terms of probabilities) as recovering an onside kick but this has a little more excitement to it.
Will the NFL Make a Change?
There’s no question that the league should tweak the rules but I don’t expect it to happen. The league makes these types of changes slowly and incrementally. As we’ve seen with overtime, there were much more logical solutions – and still are – yet NFL games can still end in ties.
When you start the game with an onside kick… 😯 #JETS https://t.co/5NVonq4aYc
— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2017
With onside kicks, it’s clear that something needs to change but there isn’t enough momentum behind it right now. The more urgent fixes are for speeding up replays, improving replay technology and fixing pass interference reviews. With that on their minds as well as ratifying the new CBA, I don’t expect this to get fixed this offseason.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
