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Odds of Derrick Henry Rushing for 2,000 Yards in 2020 Set at +250 with 3 Games Left – Should You Bet on Him?

Nick Krueger

by Nick Krueger in NFL Football

Updated Dec 18, 2020 · 2:25 PM PST

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs the ball scoring a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts during an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020. (Photo by Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)
  • Odds have been released on whether or not Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry can hit 2,000 yards this season
  • Henry already has more than 1,530 yards in 2020 with three games left to play
  • Read below for a complete breakdown and look at the bet

Derrick Henry has powered the Tennessee Titans’ offense all year long, and with three regular season games remaining, he has a chance to surpass 2,000 rushing yards.

Whether or not he can has become a compelling prop bet for the remainder of the NFL season. After the Titans’ Week 14 win at Jacksonville, Henry now has 1,532 yards on the ground, just eight yards shy of his total from 2019. He averages the most yards per game, with 117.8, and has the most running plays of 20 yards-or-more with 12.

Henry was predicted to finish 2020 as the league’s top rusher, which will likely come to fruition. The next best rusher is Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, who is nearly 200 yards behind heading into this week. Henry has had four games since 2018 in which he’s run for over 200 yards; the same number held by the rest of the league during that time.

Odds for Derrick Henry to Run for 2,000 yards

Result Odds
Yes +250
No -425

Odds as of Dec 18

Just How Close Is He?

Based on just on his per game average for the year, Henry would finish with 1,885 yards. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 137.8 yards per game, but that still wouldn’t get him there either.

Two of those four 200-yard games since 2018 have happened in 2020, and he would need another to have a chance at joining the select group of backs that have eclipsed 2,000 yards in a season. Only seven running backs have cleared the benchmark, the most recent being Adrian Peterson in 2012 with the Vikings. Eric Dickerson is the all-time single-season record holder after he ran for 2,105 yards in 1984. The Rams’ great only had four games that year in which he ran for fewer than 100 yards in a game, Henry already has five in 2020.

 

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Henry ranks 12th in percentage of plays run against an eight-man defensive front. Henry is also just the 35th-most efficient runner out of the 53 players that qualify. Conversely, he has the second-most rushing yards over expectation and averages nearly a yard over expectation per carry. Henry also leads the league in rushing attempts, which is good for those willing to take the chance on Henry, but that could work against him a bit, considering how much extra yardage he’s had to create for himself.

Titanic Offensive Line Woes

The troubles the Titans have had getting their first-round pick, Isiah Wilson, on the field have been disheartening. He’s battled off-the-field issues all season and tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month.

Tennessee’s best offensive lineman, Taylor Lewan, was placed on injured reserve in October, and two other starters, Dennis Kelly and Rodger Saffold are listed as questionable but have not practiced this week. Starting center, Ben Jones, was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday with a knee injury but was back to a full workload on Thursday.

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Realistically Speaking

Two of Tennessee’s final three games come against Detroit and Houston. Both teams are among the league leaders in percentage of run plays against them, as each are right about at 45-percent for the season. That has come out to just over 30 attempts per game, but both teams have seen fewer than that on average over their last three games.

The outlier in this scenario is Green Bay, who Tennessee plays on December 27 at Lambeau Field. The Packers average the third-fewest running plays against their defense in the league, and that number has been even lower over their last three, at 18.7 per game. Teams are often chasing Green Bay offensively, and Tennessee has the weapons in the passing game to do so if needed. In Tennessee’s 41-35 loss to Cleveland on December 6, the Titans threw the ball 45 times and ran it just 18 times.

Where is the Value?

Henry ran for 212 yards against Houston in October, and would at least need to repeat that performance when they meet in Week 17. The Titans are tied atop the AFC South with Indianapolis, so it’s likely Henry will see work all the way through the rest of the regular season. However, Henry needed a softer third opponent than Green Bay to feel good about taking him to clear 2,000 this year.

If possible, waiting to see if he can get within 185 yards of 2,000 ahead of his final game could make for a fun coin-flip bet. Truthfully, taking Henry at +6100 to win NFL MVP might be the savviest play at the moment. Right now, +250 for him to hit 2,000 yards isn’t an attractive enough number and betting against him doesn’t provide a good return on investment.

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