Odds on Which Rookie QB Wins the Most Games in 2019: Murray Favored, Jones Given Surprisingly Short Odds
- Kyler Murray will be the Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback in Week 1
- Of the three teams, Dwayne Haskins seems to be on the best roster with the Washington Redskins
- Daniel Jones had a strong preseason, completing 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns
Originally, it seemed like Kyler Murray would be the clear-cut top performer among rookie quarterbacks in 2019. However, after a good preseason from Daniel Jones, a number of the betting lines have shifted. That includes the prop for which rookie quarterback will win the most games. Is Jones – or anyone else – worth a flier?
Odds for Most NFL Rookie QB Wins
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | -300 |
| Daniel Jones | +200 |
| Dwayne Haskins | +500 |
*Odds taken 09/06/19 .
Murray Favored to Win the Most Games
It’s not surprising to see Murray as the favorite to win the most games among rookie quarterbacks because he’s the one who has the clearest path to starts. Murray will be playing from the get-go in Week 1 and that gives him a greater opportunity to compile the wins.
As a matter of fact, Murray’s Cardinals are only a three-point dog at home in Week 1, so he has a coin flip’s chance to get his first win right off the bat. Jones is stuck behind Eli Manning and Dwayne Haskins is behind Case Keenum, so we don’t know when or if we’ll see either in their first season.
If Murray wins even three or four games, that could be too much for the others to overcome. Both appear to play on subpar teams and if they only get eight games to play and win half of them, that might not be enough to catch Murray.
Value With Haskins?
I actually like the value with Haskins. In my eyes, the Redskins are the best of the three teams in this race. They have an underrated defense, a decent offensive line and a solid running game. Haskins won’t have to do much if he gets in the lineup other than move the chains and avoid turnovers.
The Redskins have a dead-end situation at quarterback right now with Case Keenum as we all know he’s not the long-term answer. The Redskins have a tough start to their schedule with the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and New England Patriots in their first five games.
With the Miami Dolphins in Week 6, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Redskins made the switch by then. If so, that could give Haskins a shot at winning close to five games this season.
Jones Won’t See the Field for a While
Jones had an incredible preseason, going 29-of-34 for 416 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, my concern here is that the Giants have a plan for him and that’s not to rush him into the lineup. Eli Manning seems to still be serviceable and as long as he’s not awful, Jones won’t get starts.
The Giants know that 2019 is not about competing for a playoff spot. They want to make sure that they have a franchise quarterback in Jones and that he’s prepared the right way. I don’t see him getting in the lineup before Week 8 in a best-case scenario and it could be longer. I’ll pass on his odds.
What’s the Best Bet?
Murray is clearly the smart choice on many levels as he’s a starter in Week 1 and is slated to see action right off the bat. The others are on the bench for an indefinite period of time. However, I don’t see much value with Murray given the price, so I would instead take a small flier on Haskins.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
