Odds to Be the No. 1 Seed in the AFC and NFC Entering Playoffs: Niners Favored Over Saints & Seahawks
- The NFC has four teams tied at 11-3
- The San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 , which could decide the No. 1 seed
- The Baltimore Ravens are a huge favorite to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC
As we make the turn for Week 16 in the NFL season, the playoff races are in full swing. The No. 1 seed in both conferences is still in play, but the NFC race is a lot more intriguing than the AFC.
In the NFC, four teams are are tied at 11-3; in the AFC, the 12-2 Baltimore Ravens could still conceivably be caught by the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs, but it’s not likely.
What teams are the best bets for the NFL conference championship odds? Let’s take a closer look.
Odds To Win No. 1 Seed In NFC
| Team | Odds | Final Two Games |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +155 | vs LAR, at SEA |
| Seattle Seahawks | +215 | vs ARZ, vs SF |
| New Orleans Saints | +215 | at TEN, at CAR |
| Green Bay Packers | +1100 | at MIN, vs DET |
Odds taken Dec. 20.
NFC Is 49ers’ To Lose
There are four teams in the NFC at 11-3 but the San Francisco 49ers, who are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC, are in the driver’s seat. If they win their final two games, they’ll claim the top spot. The challenge for the 49ers is that they have a couple of tricky games in front of them, which won’t make things easy on them.
The 49ers will host the Los Angeles Rams this week and, while the Rams are not the caliber team they were last season, they are still 8-6. They’re coming off a blowout loss at Dallas and the 49ers should win, but this isn’t exactly a gimme. In Week 17, the 49ers have a huge showdown with the Seattle Seahawks, another team that’s 11-3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW21Pi9Vir8
Speaking of the Seahawks, they’re currently in the top spot in the NFC. They’ll also have to win out but they have the tiebreaker with the Green Bay Packers in terms of winning percentage in common games. They also hold the tiebreaker with the Saints in terms of winning percentage in conference games.
If the Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals this week, which they’re fully expected to do, and beat the 49ers in Week 17, they have a great chance at #1 seed. They win most three-way tie-breakers and beat the Packers head-to-head. However, a two-way tie for first with the Saints would result in Seattle being the #2 seed. (New Orleans beat Seattle in Week 3.)
As for the Packers, they have a tough game this week at Minnesota and then visit the Detroit Lions in Week 17, a team they should beat. If the Packers lose this week (they’re currently a 5.5-point underdog) they’re out of the running. However, if they win-out, they still have an outside shot at the #1 seed. They lose a two-way tiebreaker with either the Seahawks or 49ers, but beat the Saints thanks to conference record.
The Saints are currently the No. 3 seed. As mentioned, they win the two-team tiebreaker over the Seahawks. But they lose a two-way tiebreaker to both the 49ers and Packers.
The Saints schedule is also tricky as they’ll be on the road at Tennessee this week, a team that is 6-2 in its last eight games. After that, though, they should cruise to an easy win in Week 17 at Carolina, which is in the midst of a nosedive.
Odds To Win No. 1 Seed In AFC
| Team | Odds | Final Two Games |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | -6500 | at CLE, vs PIT |
| New England Patriots | +1100 | vs BUF, vs MIA |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2800 | at CHI, vs LAC |
Odds taken Dec. 20.
AFC Is Ravens To Lose
The AFC playoff picture is much more clear-cut; this conference is the Baltimore Ravens’ to lose. They’re currently in the top spot at 12-2 and would have to lose both of their final two games to fall out of the top spot. The New England Patriots (11-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) are technically still in it, needing to win out and get help.
The Ravens own the head to head tiebreaker over New England, which is why their one-game lead over the Patriots is effectively a 1.5-game lead.
As for the Chiefs, they actually win a two-team tiebreaker with the Ravens thanks to a Week 3 win. But winning out and having Baltimore lose out wouldn’t necessarily be enough. They would still need the Patriots to lose one of their final two games, as well. KC”s long odds are thoroughly justified.
Exacerbating the problem for the Chiefs and Patriots is that the Ravens have an easy schedule. They’re a 10-point favorite at Cleveland this weekend and then host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. The Ravens are on a 10-game winning streak and could beat both – if they had to.
As for the Patriots, they have a tough battle with the Buffalo Bills this week, who are a 10-win team. However, after that, they’ll host the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, which should translate into a win.
As for the Chiefs, they’re at the Chicago Bears this weekend and then come home to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17. They’ll be favored in both but of the three teams, the Ravens probably have the easiest remaining schedule.
What’s The Best Bet?
In the AFC, the Ravens are a shoo-in. In the NFC, I’d bet the Seahawks. You’re getting them at +215 but realistically, you could probably hedge that bet in Week 17 by betting the 49ers, who might be a small road favorite in Seattle. The Seahawks are a tough team to beat at home and the 49ers are banged up.
At +215, the Seahawks offer some value with this prop.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
