Packers vs Chiefs Props: Sunday Night Football Week 8

• Week 8’s SNF matchup sees the Green Bay Packers head to Arrowhead to face a Mahomesless Kansas City Chiefs
• SNF props record: 1-2 in Week 7 (-2.23 units); 7-14 on the season (-8.71 units)
• Let’s take a look at three of the more interesting prop bets for Week 8’s SNF matchup

Needing Dak Prescott to complete four passes in the fourth quarter of Week 7’s SNF blowout was too much to ask for as the Philadelphia Eagles decided to take the night off and concede the division lead to the Cowboys. The unexpected game script was enough to ensure the losing continued for me, but let’s keep swinging and see if we can change these heartbreaking losses into some profitable wins.

Week 8 should have been a battle of two of the best teams in the league, featuring two of the most talented QBs to ever grace the gridiron. Instead, Pat Mahomes went out a dislocated a kneecap on a QB sneak and we end up with a 6-1 Green Bay Packers team facing the 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs, who will be looking to scrape out a win with 35-year-old Matt Moore. Despite his age, Moore  has all of 30 starts since entering the league way back in 2007.

Let’s take a look at a few interesting props for this deflated SNF matchup between two division leaders.

Prop 1: Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Odds

*All odds taken October 25th

The Chiefs defensive front has taken a huge hit in the month of October, first losing DT Chris Jones and then last week losing DE Frank Clark to a neck injury. The Chiefs D has had trouble stopping opposing offenses all year and it will only get worse without these two key cogs.

In the Chiefs’ first three home games of 2019 opponents have ran all over them to the tune of 191.7 yards per game. They haven’t held their opponents’ lead back under 100 rushing yards at Arrowhead. Overall, they own the leagues 29th ranked run defense.

Chiefs Home Opponents Leading Rusher Attempts and Yards

Aaron Rodgers and the Pack’s most recent game was a 42-24 drumming of the Oakland Raiders in which Rodgers finished with the Packers first-ever perfect passer rating. That was without star WR Davante Adams, who is likely missing this week’s contest as well.

Packers RB Aaron Jones has eclipsed the century mark twice this season and has yet to post a game with less than 10 carries. With the Chiefs giving up five yards per carry, Jones is in a prime spot for a big day.

Pick: 76+ rush yards (+118)
Risk: 2 units to win 2.36 units

Prop 2: Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Odds

Okay, so now I’m hedging bets. Yes, but hear me out. Jamaal Williams has out-carried Jones twice already this year with the last time coming as recently as Week 6. With the Packers’ inability to commit to Aaron Jones as their “bellcow” back and Williams’ effectiveness serving as a 1B running back, there is no reason both backs can’t have an effective day against a defense surrendering 191 yards per game at home on the ground. Yes, I repeated that point as I feel it needs repeating. 191 yards is a huge number!

“Jamaal Williams totals 136 yards, TD on MNF – Jamaal Williams | GB” https://t.co/wOiuVqqAsz vis Rotoworld #NFL #fantasyfootball #Football

— LetsTalkFF ? (@LetsTalkFF) October 15, 2019

Williams has carried the ball nine or more times in the five full games he has played. His yards per carry mark bests Jones 4.56 to 3.95. Jones makes more spectacular plays but Williams is the Packers back that provides their backfield with stability when Jones is struggling. If Jones struggles early Williams will come in and provide a solid contribution, if Jones is at his best Williams has carved out enough of a role in the offense to make an impact.

The Packers may come out letting Aaron Rodgers sling the ball all over the field coming off a huge game in Week 7, but with a weak Chiefs run D and a passing defense that ranks 10th, which just put up eight sacks last week, look for the Packers to expose a huge deficiency on a roster that could be competing for a Super Bowl if Mahomes makes a quick recovery.

Pick: 42+ rush yards (+108)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Prop 3: Player Stat Doubles: Aaron Jones Odds

What more is there to say: I expect the Packers running game to play a large part on SNF. The Chiefs have given up eight rushing TDs in their three home games. Aaron Jones has 9 TDs in 7 games with eight of them coming on the ground.

Reaching 100 yards and a TD is very achievable versus the 29th-ranked run defense as Jones has reached this feat twice already this year. He’s done it against the Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings – withg both teams owning a top-15 run defense. Jones is the more dynamic Packer back and most likely to shred this pitiful Chiefs run defense.

It's The Aaron Jones Show w/ 4 TDs & 182 Total Yds!! | 2019 NFL Highlights https://t.co/7og4RqamaZ #FireFan pic.twitter.com/LXrnIk3Vfa

— Ricky Johnson (@SteelerzMagic) October 20, 2019

Pick: Aaron Jones 100+ Rushing Yards and 1+ Touchdown (+475)
Risk: 1 unit to win 4.75 units