Packers vs Vikings Monday Night Football Props: Thielen’s Return Could Lead to Big Night for Cousins

• Minnesota Vikings look to remain undefeated at home as they host Green Bay on Monday Night Football
• Injuries to Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison set the stage for second-year rusher Mike Boone to carry the load in the Minnesota backfield
• Receiver Adam Thielen is set to return, but doubts remain about his health after seeing limited action last week

The battle for first place in the NFC North – and a potential first-round bye – continues on Monday Night Football as the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers as 5-point favorites.

With a 10-4 SU record, the Vikings trail the Packers by one game in the divisional standings, while both these squads have produced mixed results at the sportsbooks this season, each going 6-4 ATS over their past ten contests.

Here’s a look at four props bets to consider for Monday night’s matchup at US Bank Stadium.

Prop #1 – Adam Thielen Receiving Yards

*All Odds taken Dec. 23rd

Thielen made his return last weekend after missing five of the previous six contests with a hamstring injury. The Vikings receiver was used sparingly in the team’s 39-10 rout of the Los Angeles Chargers, playing in just over half of Minnesota’s offensive snaps, and seeing just three targets on the afternoon.

#Vikings WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen practicing ahead of MNF vs. Packers.

Diggs has scored a TD in six straight games vs Green Bay, with 36 catches for 525 yards and 7 TDs in that span.

Thielen has 52 catches for 694 yards and 4 TDs in last seven games against Packers. pic.twitter.com/PXPMBT48a6

— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) December 19, 2019

That marked a dramatic step back from his numbers prior to injury, as he played in over 80% of snaps the first seven weeks of the campaign.

While concerns remain about Thielen’s health despite not being listed on this week’s injury report, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has been able to effectively connect with Stefon Diggs, who led the way with 76 receiving yards last week, and has topped 12 yards twice during Thielen’s absence.

Pick: UNDER 58.5 (-114)

Prop #2 – Kirk Cousins Completions

Cousins struggled badly when these two teams clashed in a 21-16 Packers victory at Lambeau Field in Week 2. The Vikings pivot mustered just 230 passing yards while going a meagre 14-for-32 in that contest. However, Cousins has dramatically turned things around since then, completing over 20 passes in nine of his past 11 outings.

Kirk Cousins
87.9 PFF Passing Grade (3rd in NFC)#ProBowlSnub pic.twitter.com/nxekzr5xPQ

— PFF (@PFF) December 18, 2019

Kirk Cousins Past 10 Starts

With Dalvin Cook and Alex Mattison ruled out, the stage is set for Cousins to go to the air with regularity at home, where he has completed over 83.5% of his pass attempts over his past three outings, and lit up the Packers with 29 completed passes and three scores in last season’s 24-17 win.

After getting passed over for the Pro Bowl in favor of Green Bay pivot Aaron Rodgers, Cousins has a little extra motivation to make a statement in Monday’s contest.

Pick: Cousins OVER 20.5 pass completions (-130)

Prop #3 – Mike Boone Rushing Yards

Injuries in the Vikings backfield have created opportunities for Mike Boone, and the second-year rusher out of Cincinnati has capitalized. After Cook left last weekend’s contest in Los Angeles with an upper-body injury, Boone stepped up in the second half, piling up 56 yards on 13 carries.

With the Vikings now having wrapped up a playoff slot, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Minnesota to play injured RB Alexander Mattison. And so with Dalvin Cook out and Mattison hobbled, Monday night figures to be the Mike Boone show.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 22, 2019

In general, the Vikings have run the ball with success this season, ranking fourth in the NFL with an average of 31 total carries per game. And even with Mattison out and Cook leaving midway through last week’s contest, Minnesota racked up 37 carries and 137 rushing yards on the day, thanks largely to Boone’s strong second-half performance. Look for more of the same on Monday night, regardless of Mattison’s status.

Pick: OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Prop #4 – Point Total

Going into Monday night’s contest, the Vikings remain the lone undefeated team on home turf this season. Minnesota has powered their unblemished record with stingy defense, allowing just 14.2 points per game, and limiting opponents to single-digit point totals in two of their past three at US Bank Stadium.

The Packers have also demonstrated their ability to play stout defense, ranking 10th in the NFL while allowing just 20.2 points per game on the season, and limiting opponents to fewer than 16 or fewer points in four of their past five outings.

The @Vikings defense was DOMINANT in Week 14.
📯 5 Sacks
📯 2 Interceptions
📯 231 Yards Allowed @Vikings | #Skol pic.twitter.com/fTaljLTFLb

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2019

The Green Bay offense has also sputtered at times in contests away from Lambeau Field, falling flat while scoring just 19 total points in stunning November road losses to the Chargers and San Francisco, and scoring 11 or fewer points on three of their six overall road dates this season. The trends also favor the UNDER, which has prevailed in eight of the past 10 meetings between these two teams, including each of the past five in Minnesota.

Pick: UNDER 47 (-108)