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NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 7

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Oct 22, 2021 · 6:00 AM PDT

Patrick Mahomes before the snap
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) points down field during an NFL football game against the Washington Football Team, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
  • Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, October 24th
  • Our best bets last week were 0-3 (2021 season: 5-13, -8.9 units)
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 7 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

Week 7 on the NFL calendar continues on Sunday (October 24th) with a lighter slate than usual. With six teams on bye, Sunday’s action will feature just 10 games, but there’s still some value to be found in the betting market.

Our Sunday ATS picks this season have been a stone cold disaster, but there’s plenty of time to turn things around. Our betting card starts with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who are getting disrespected by oddsmakers ahead of their tilt with Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans.

Week 7 ATS Picks

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans KC (-4.5) KC (-4.5) 2
Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins ATL (-2.5) ATL (-2.5) 1
Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants CAR (-3) CAR (-3) 1

Odds as of  Oct. 21st at FanDuel and DraftKings. See bottom for rest of Week 7 Picks.

Chiefs Cover vs Titans

Kansas City opened as 5.5-point road favorites in Tennessee, but that number is down to as low as -4.5 at some online sportsbooks. Everyone seems to be down on the Chiefs after a few losses, but it wasn’t they like were beaten by scrubs. They were defeated by Buffalo, Baltimore and the LA Chargers, three teams with a combined record of 13-5.

Last week, KC turned the ball over three times in Washington, and still cruised to an 18-point win. The Chiefs lead the NFL in points per drive, and have punted less than any other team. Mahomes and co. have scored at least 31 points in every road contest so far, and Tennessee is not built to contain KC’s potent attack.

The Titans rank 27th in pass DVOA, and 25th in pass rush win rate. They’re completely decimated in the secondary with both starting corners out, as well as their number one backup DB. They’ve yielded 31, 30, and 38 points to the top three passing offenses they’ve faced (Arizona, Seattle and Buffalo), and to make matters worse they’re on a short week.

Henry and the Tennessee offense were on fire on Monday Night Football versus the Bills, and while King Henry is primed once again dominate on the ground, the Titans are also going to need to produce through the air. Easier said than done with left tackle Taylor Lewan out, and Julio Jones doubtful.

This game profiles as an absolute shootout, with Kansas City pulling away late.

Falcons Dominate Dolphins

The last time we saw the Atlanta Falcons they were casually dropping 450 yards on the New York Jets. After a week off, the Falcons are 2.5-point favorites in Miami, versus what should be a tired Dolphins squad.

Miami fell to the previously winless Jacksonville Jaguars in London last week, and elected not to use their bye afterwards. Instead, the Dolphins will try to slow down Ryan and Co., who have been red hot recently.

Ryan has a 71% completion rate and a 10-to-3 TD-to-INT rate over his last four games, and will get number one receiver Calvin Ridley back after a one game absence. Miami rates out as the seventh worst pass defense per DVOA, while recording the eighth lowest pressure rate.

Offensively, only the Jets and Houston grade out worse per DVOA than the Dolphins. Miami has been outgained by an average of 127.8 yards per contest this season, and feature the lowest graded pass blocking unit per Pro Football Focus.

Panthers Pound Giants

Last but not least, is the Carolina Panthers favored by 3 points over the New York Giants. New York’s offense is in shambles, and the news keeps getting worse. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney, arguably the Giants top three skilled position players, aren’t expected to play and now a couple key contributors are in doubt. Evan Engram isn’t practicing, while Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard are also nursing injuries. To make matters worse, stud left tackle Andrew Thomas was just placed on IR.

That doesn’t bode well for Daniel Jones’ outlook, who’s already set-up for a tough matchup. Carolina has the NFL’s fourth highest pressure rate, and eighth highest graded defense per DVOA.

On the other side of the ball, Sam Darnold has played bad enough to warrant benching, but keep in mind who the competition has been. Darnold has gone up against Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota over the past three weeks, three of the top-12 pass defenses by DVOA.

New York on the other hand ranks 22nd versus the pass, 26th against the run, while generating the second lowest pressure rate.

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Week 7 Quick Picks

  • Packers (-7.5) vs Washington: Green Bay is 5-1 ATS this season, the second best cover rate in the league. Washington meanwhile, is allowing the second most points per drive.
  • Ravens (-6.5) vs Bengals: Baltimore has outscored Cincy 137-36 since 2019, while the Ravens rank seventh in both points per game and scoring defense.
  • Patriots (-6.5) vs Jets: Zach Wilson looked absolutely lost when these two teams met in Week 2. Since then, Wilson has posted just one game with a QBR above 17.5.
  • Lions (+15.5) vs Rams: LA wins the game, but leaves the backdoor open for their former QB Jared Goff and the Detroit offense.
  • Eagles (+3) vs Raiders: Philly’s top-nine pass rushing unit should create enough havoc to throw Derek Carr off his game. Carr has been excellent in a clean pocket this season, but is completing just 45.6% of his throws under duress.
  • Texans (+17.5) vs Cardinals: Possible let down spot for Arizona with Green Bay on deck for Thursday Night Football. Cards win the game, but Houston beats the number.
  • Bears (+12) vs Buccaneers: Chicago ranks seventh in defensive DVOA this season. Tampa Bay meanwhile, boasts the league’s top offense, but allow the sixth most passing yards per game. Possible breakout game coming for Justin Fields.
  • 49ers (-4) vs Colts: Injuries continue to set Indy back. Parris Campbell is now out and T.Y. Hilton’s status is in doubt after just returning from injury. San Fran meanwhile, is fresh off a bye and needs a win to kickstart its season.
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