NFL Picks Against the Spread for Wild Card Weekend – SBD Formula is 51-36-3

• The 2021 NFL playoffs begin with Wild Card Weekend on Saturday, January 15th
• The SBD Formula was 51-36-3 with its best bets against the spread during the regular season
• Read below for analysis on the Wild Card Weekend slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

The SBD Formula ended the 2021 NFL regular season the same way it started it. By handing out winners. The SBD Formula was 3-2 with its best bets against the spread in Week 18, running its season long total to 51-36-3. That’s a 58.6% win rate, which almost every NFL bettor on the planet would take in a heartbeat.

The gravy train isn’t about to end just because the regular season is in the books. Wild Card Weekend gives us six playoff games to sweat starting on Saturday (January 15th), and the SBD Formula sees the most value in two of the NFC’s three contests.

Wild Card Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Jan. 12th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Dallas, where the NFC East champion Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys versus 49ers was a playoff staple in the early 90’s, and this will be the eighth postseason meeting all-time between the two iconic franchises.

49ers vs Cowboys Pick Against the Spread

Dallas is currently a 3-point favorite, a number the SBD Formula doesn’t think is high enough. It’s predicting a 6-point Cowboys victory, something the advanced metrics agree with.

My @SBD formula goes 3-2 on its top ATS picks today

Finishes the regular season 51-36-3 on its top 5 picks from each week

– see correction tweet about missing a 2-2-1 performance from Wk 9 https://t.co/gLislz7RAb

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 10, 2022

Dallas finished the regular season ranked first in overall DVOA, and was the highest graded offense by Pro Football Focus. Only the Bills were ranked higher on defense per DVOA, while the Cowboys led the NFL in both takeaways and turnover differential.

Cowboys rookie LB Micah Parsons said defense is focused on maintaining its standard vs. 49ers: “Our key is to stop the run and then let the monsters eat on third down. We’ve got to win the first and second down.”

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) January 12, 2022

The knock against Dallas is that they struggled against strong competition. The Cowboys did beat the Eagles convincingly twice, but were just 2-4 in their six other games versus playoff competition. It should be noted however, that one of those losses came on a last second field goal in Tampa Bay, while another versus Las Vegas was the result of 166 penalty yards.

Rivalry Renewed 😤#SuperWildCard @BankofAmerica#DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/X4EQyXqLsb

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) January 10, 2022

San Fran was also 4-4 versus playoff bound opponents, but are dealing with injury concerns. Jimmy Garoppolo is trying to play through a painful thumb injury, and the Niners are just one bad hit away from putting their playoff fate in rookie Trey Lance’s hands. Healthy or not, Garoppolo is prone to turnovers, which is a major cause for concern against this Dallas defense. Jimmy G threw two interceptions in three of his final five games.

Now that the playoffs are here, #49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is well aware that the next game he plays could be his last with the team. But he’s trying to ride it as long as he can. Reporting for SportsCenter this evening… pic.twitter.com/XkR5rSC8C7

— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) January 13, 2022

The 49ers also have issues in the secondary, due to injury and talent. They finished the year as a below average coverage unit per PFF, and that’s an area Dak Prescott the Cowboys potent passing game can exploit. San Fran covered up some of its secondary warts with a top-five pass rush, but Dallas’ top-three rated pass blocking unit should help minimize the damage Nick Bosa and company inflict.

The Cowboys were 13-4 against the spread this season, covering in five of their past six down the stretch.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3, 1 unit

Cardinals vs Rams Pick Against the Spread

Our next target is the Cardinals as 4-point underdogs versus the Rams. Not only is the SBD Formula siding with Arizona, it’s predicting an outright upset.

My @SBD formula loses its only upset pick today

It finishes the season 39-37 on upset picks
💰+23.38 units💰

Onto the playoffs now!! https://t.co/DwPgqRKKnT

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 10, 2022

The Cardinals limp into the postseason losers of four of their past five games, but did upset the Cowboys on the road two weeks ago. Kyler Murray will once again be without his top weapon DeAndre Hopkins, putting even more pressure on the former number one overall pick’s shoulders.

Highest-graded QB on deep passing

🚀 Kyler Murray pic.twitter.com/Tin2p19C6r

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 12, 2022

Speaking of former number one overall picks, a bet on Arizona in this contest is more like a bet against Matthew Stafford. We mentioned Stafford’s struggles last week versus winning teams, and it reared its ugly head again against the 49ers. After failing to cover versus San Fran, Stafford is 31-53-2 against the spread all-time versus teams with an above .500 record. For those keeping track at home, that’s a 36.9% cover rate.

Matthew Stafford passer rating before OBJ: 111.0

After OBJ: 93.7

— Ed Greenberger (@EdGreenberger) January 10, 2022

After a scorching start to the season, Stafford has struggled over his past 9 games. He’s thrown 13 interceptions during that stretch, including seven in his past three outings.

These two NFC West rivals split the season series 1-1, with the Cardinals winning 37-20 in LA back in Week 4.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +4, 1 unit