Raiders’ Odds to Win AFC West Continue to Fade; Is There Any Reason to Bet Them at Their Current Price?
- The Raiders are +1500 on average to win the 2019 AFC West title
- Oakland had a -177 point difference last year, which was 157 points worse than any other team in the West
- Will offseason additions like Antonio Brown be enough to make the Raiders a divisional contender in 2019?
With a week until National Football League teams begin reporting to their respective training camps, the Oakland Raiders average odds win the AFC West are at +1500 as bettors and oddsmakers alike continue to sour on the Silver and Black. Sportsbooks have listed them at +1600 to win the West.
2019 AFC West Odds
| AFC West Teams | Odds to Win 2019 AFC West Title |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -175 |
| LA Chargers | +175 |
| Denver Broncos | +1200 |
| Oakland Raiders | +1600 |
*Odds as of July 22.
Raiders Coming off a 4-12 Season
The Raiders are coming off a 2018 season in which they finished last in the division with a 4-12 record, scored the fewest points of the four teams in the division with 290, and allowed the most with 467. Their -177 point difference was 157 points worse than third-place Denver.
It was 321 points worse than the first-place Chiefs.
The Raiders weren’t great a home, compiling a 3-5 mark, which was tied with Denver for worst in the division, but it was significantly better than their 1-7 road record.
Roster Turnover
Last year, first-year head coach Jon Gruden signified his intention to start a full-on rebuild by trading Khalil Mack to the Bears and Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. The Raiders received first-round picks in 2019 and 2020, a sixth-round pick in 2019, and a third-round pick in 2020 for Mack. They added another 2019 first in the deal that sent Cooper to Dallas.
They used their three first-round picks in the 2019 draft to make some quality additions: Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell (fourth overall), Alabama running back Josh Jacobs (24th overall), and Mississippi State strong safety Johnathan Abram.
The Raiders also selected Clemson cornerback Trayvon Mullen in the second round and Clemson wide receiver Hunter Renfrow in the fifth.
That said, the influx of young talent does more for their longterm prospects than their 2019 outlook.
Their biggest addition of the offseason was, of course, pickin up All Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown in a blockbuster trade from Pittsburgh. New general manager Mike Mayock also signed tackle Trent Brown, guard Chaz Green, wide receivers J.J. Nelson and Tyrell Williams, defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, defensive end Josh Mauro, and safety Lamarcus Joyner.
In sum, this year’s Raiders team will look a lot different than last year’s product, but will the changes be enough to overcome a 321-point gap?
Is There Value Betting on the Raiders to Win the West in 2019?
On paper, Oakland does look to be an improved squad. However, so do its divisional rivals.
Kansas City bolstered the NFL’s 31st-ranked defense by signing ball-hawk safety Tyrann Mathieu, trading for Seattle defensive end Frank Clark, and later acquiring linebacker Darron Lee from the Jets.
The Chargers also tinkered with their roster by re-signing safety Adrian Phillips, and adding Carolina linebacker Thomas Davis and Cleveland quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Kansas City bolstered the NFL’s 31st-ranked defense by [adding] Tyrann Mathieu, … Frank Clark, and … Darron Lee.
Denver traded a 2019 fourth-round pick to Baltimore for quarterback Joe Flacco, along with signing corner Kareem Jackson.
Oakland is improved but not nearly enough to consider placing a bet on, even at +1600. This is the fourth-best team in a very good division.
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