Raiders and Packers’ Divisional, Super Bowl Odds After Davante Adams Trade
- Davante Adams has been traded to the Raiders for two 2022 draft choices, including the No. 22 overall pick
- Despite the trade, the Packers’ Super Bowl odds remained the same, while the Raiders’ were significantly shortened
- Read below for analysis on how the trade affects both teams in the futures market, and whether or not either team is worthy of a wager
The NFL refuses to let another sport have the spotlight. On a night where the entire sports world should have been glued to NCAA Tournament, the Packers shocked the NFL by trading Davante Adams, their best offensive skilled position player, to the Raiders.
In return, Green Bay receives two 2022 draft choices, including the 22nd overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. The timing is especially strange since the Packers just got a long term commitment from Aaron Rodgers. Now, the man he relied on more than anyone else is gone, but the trade barely moved the needle for Green Bay in the futures market.
Super Bowl 2023 Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +675 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +800 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +900 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1100 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1200 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1300 |
| Denver Broncos | +1500 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1500 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2200 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2200 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2200 |
| New Orleans Saints | +2200 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +2800 |
| Tennessee Titans | +2800 |
| New England Patriots | +3300 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3300 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3500 |
Odds as of March 17th at Barstool Sportsbook.
Packers and Raiders Updated Super Bowl Odds
The Packers remain a top-four contender in the Super Bowl 2023 odds. Prior to the news, they were +1100 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and afterwards their price did not change. Adams, the franchise single-season leader in receptions and yards, accounted for 33.6% of Rodgers’ total completions last season, and 37.7% of his passing yards.
Per a source, the Packers we’re willing to pay Adams equally to what the Raiders are with this new deal but Adams preferred to play elsewhere.
Aaron Rodgers was aware of the developments with Adams as they unfolded in recent days.
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 17, 2022
Las Vegas will now give Adams a five-year, $141.25 million contract. Green Bay was reportedly willing to match, but Adams wanted to play elsewhere. The Packers placed the franchise tag on him earlier this month, but were expected to offer him a massive contract once their cap situation was cleared up.
Davante Adams is the highest-paid WR in football 💰💰💰
Well deserved 👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/k63ZxWc5wh
— PFF (@PFF) March 17, 2022
While Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds didn’t budge, the Raiders’ price was nearly slashed in half. They went from +6000 to +3500, but still boast the longest odds of any AFC West team by a healthy margin.
Packers Remain Kings in the North
Green Bay did see a slight change to its NFL Divisional odds, but the movement was negligible. They went from -210 to -182 to claim the NFC North for the fourth straight season, and it’s worth pointing out that they’ve fared quite well without Adams in the past.
The Packers were 7-0 without Adams under LaFleur. Everyone who's been looking for a more diversified attack, it's on the way…
— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) March 17, 2022
The Packers are 7-0 all-time in games Adams has missed, and the bevy of draft picks they now possess should allow them to be aggressive next month. Obviously wide receiver is their biggest need, and with six wideouts projected to go in the First Round, they should be able to secure Rodgers’ new number one target for the rest of his tenure.
If they select one, the rookie should see plenty of targets from the man with the third-best NFL MVP odds for next season.
The real question becomes: How in the hell did the Packers convince Aaron Rodgers to come back without Davante???
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) March 17, 2022
Green Bay is the biggest Divisional favorite in the NFC, which speaks to how loaded its roster is and how weak the rest of the NFC North is. The Bears and Lions are both in full blown rebuild mode, while the Vikings simply don’t have the talent to compete with the conference’s elite.
Without Adams, the Packers’ offensive efficiency is likely to suffer, but they can still easily win their division with strong defense and a more balanced offensive attack than we’re used to seeing.
I miss watching AJ Dillon drag defenders around the field…pic.twitter.com/XF7sCKZUsR
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) March 13, 2022
They’ll likely address their receiver concerns in the draft, and lean heavily on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the backfield. Don’t forget, the Green Bay defense is no longer its weak link. That unit finished top-nine in takeaways and yards allowed per game, and held the 49ers without an offensive touchdown in the playoffs. It’s by no means time to panic for Cheesehead nation.
Raiders Still AFC West Cellar Dwellers
Las Vegas has been extremely active this offseason not only trading for Adams, but also hiring Josh McDaniels as its new head coach and signing Chandler Jones in free agency. The addition of Adams is the biggest splash, but the Raiders remain a significant underdog in the AFC West odds.
Derek Carr looking at Aaron Rodgers after the Raiders got Davante Adams pic.twitter.com/LRwciXicQ2
— Josiah Johnson (@KingJosiah54) March 18, 2022
Their divisional odds were shortened from +1100 to +600, but that’s still over four times as long as Kansas City’s (+130), and over twice as long as Denver and the LA Chargers (+275).
Adams was Pro Football Focus’ top graded receiver in 2020, and number two ranked wideout last season. Oddsmakers’ however, don’t believe his presence is enough to make Las Vegas a viable contender in the West.
So now the Raiders will have Derek Carr throwing to Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 17, 2022
The Chiefs have two Super Bowl appearances and a conference championship berth over the past two seasons, while both the Broncos and Chargers made serious upgrades to their rosters this offseason.
The biggest thing holding Las Vegas back is Derek Carr. Adams was reportedly very keen on playing with his former college QB, but it’s hard to imagine why.
Derek Carr & Davante Adams are reunited pic.twitter.com/l824Ygafve
— PFF (@PFF) March 17, 2022
Carr boasted a league average passing grade per PFF in 2021, and averaged only 7.5 yards per attempt. He’s cleared 30 touchdown passes once in his entire career, and led Las Vegas to the 19th best offensive ranking per DVOA. In a division featuring Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and now Russell Wilson as well, Carr is the clear number four of the group.
Yes, the Raiders are fresh off a playoff appearance, but a tougher schedule now awaits them, in addition to improved competition within the division. They’re still a fade in the futures market.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
